GBP\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 215,65\u2013215,70 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini geri verdi. Kur 215,30\u2013215,25 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi ve g\u00fcn\u00fc yataya yak\u0131n tamamlayarak \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve beklentiden iyi gelen ayl\u0131k Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH (bir ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) verisine ra\u011fmen bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Nisan 2026 tarihli IMF (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu) tahminleri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Ekim 2025\u2019teki %1,3\u2019ten %0,8\u2019e indirdi ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 etkilerden en fazla etkilenmeye a\u00e7\u0131k G7 (7 b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomi grubu) ekonomisinin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Yen, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki aksamalar\u0131n ekonomide yaratabilece\u011fi bask\u0131ya dair endi\u015felerle zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca piyasan\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Nisan ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini azaltmas\u0131 da yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; bu durum GBP\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Paritedeki geri \u00e7ekilme, \u015fimdilik yak\u0131n vadeli bir tepeyi teyit etmi\u015f de\u011fil. Kur hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 216,00 seviyesini g\u00f6rerek Temmuz 2008\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019nin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere yak\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun da bir \u201ckilitlenme\u201d (al\u0131c\u0131 ve sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n dengede kalmas\u0131) riskine i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son fiyat hareketi 215,00 \u00e7evresinde dar bir banda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; Sterlin ve Yen \u00fczerindeki z\u0131t ekonomik bask\u0131lar net bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. Bu tablo, paritenin 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %13,5\u2019e y\u00fckselterek bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; piyasa belirgin bir harekete haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
IMF\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi, Sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2026 tahmini %1,3\u2019ten %0,8\u2019e \u00e7ekilerek Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 tedarik zinciri (\u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan lojistik ak\u0131\u015f) sorunlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Sterlin\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 214,50 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) sahip sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131k, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesini engelliyor. D\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %25\u2019inin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir ge\u00e7it olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksakl\u0131klar\u0131, enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 (enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan alan) Japonya ekonomisi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un bir sonraki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 geciktirebilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretler, yeni zay\u0131f tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cy\u00f6ns\u00fcz\u201d bir yakla\u015f\u0131m daha temkinli olabilir. 1 ayl\u0131k straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put alma; fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) bu ortamda i\u015flevsel olabilir. Mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iki y\u00f6nden birindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek risk alabilen ve bu dengenin s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, opsiyon primi satmak (opsiyon satarak prim geliri elde etmek) alternatif olabilir. 214,00\u2013216,50 band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilen k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (short strike: sat\u0131lan opsiyonun kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131) ile bir iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurulan, belirli bir bantta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan strateji) y\u00fckselen oynakl\u0131ktan gelir \u00fcretmeyi hedefleyebilir. Bu strateji, GBP\/JPY\u2019nin May\u0131s vade sonuna (expiry: opsiyonun sona erdi\u011fi tarih) yakla\u015f\u0131rken bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 halinde avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/JPY 216,00 zirvesi sonras\u0131 215 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: IMF\u2019nin zay\u0131f UK b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini Sterlin\u2019i bask\u0131larken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 yen zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Oynakl\u0131k %13,5; k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in straddle, bant i\u00e7in iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44873\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}