S&P 500 endeksi %0,26 y\u00fckselerek yeni bir rekor kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. NASDAQ ise %0,36 artt\u0131 ve y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini 12 seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu, 2009\u2019dan bu yana en uzun seri.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol %4,70 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 99,39 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen ABD hisseleri, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 11 i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcndeki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015finin son y\u0131llar\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketlerinden biri oldu\u011funu belirtti. Referans olarak 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana %10,7\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Banka ayr\u0131ca, endekste 11 g\u00fcnl\u00fck daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin en son Mart 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; o d\u00f6nemde y\u00fckseli\u015fin Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131nda erken ate\u015fkes beklentilerine ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak sonras\u0131nda hisselerin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 \u015fu anda 6200 seviyesine yak\u0131n rekor d\u00fczeyleri zorluyor ve bu piyasa g\u00fcc\u00fc olduk\u00e7a tan\u0131d\u0131k geliyor. 2025 ortas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan ve o d\u00f6nemdeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin, Mart 2022\u2019deki ve h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde tersine d\u00f6nen \u201cyan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe\u201d \u00e7ok benzedi\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren analize geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortam da benzer bir uyar\u0131 i\u015fareti veriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada rehavet olu\u015fuyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) 13,5 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede; bu g\u00f6sterge, piyasada beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 (oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) \u00f6l\u00e7er ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 korkusunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder. Hisse senedi put\/call oran\u0131 da 0,65\u2019e geriledi; bu oran, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla tercih edildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. (Opsiyon, belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir; \u201cput\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u201ccall\u201d al\u0131m\/y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini ifade eder.) Sigorta niteli\u011findeki bu korumaya talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiminden hemen \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) verisi %3,4 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi. T\u00dcFE, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er ve enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergelerindendir. Bu durum, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle olunca mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015fin zemini k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; t\u0131pk\u0131 2022\u2019deki, ate\u015fkes umutlar\u0131na dayanan ancak sonradan bo\u015f \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fckseli\u015f gibi. 2025\u2019te de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc piyasa kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmi\u015f, bu risk k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fiyatlara yeniden yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu mevcut ortamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumay\u0131, daha pahal\u0131 hale gelmeden almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. SPY veya QQQ ETF\u2019lerinde \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) put almak ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 etkili bir korunma sa\u011flayabilir. (ETF, endeksi takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonudur; out-of-the-money put, bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen ancak sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte de\u011fer kazanabilen bir koruma arac\u0131d\u0131r.) Tarih, bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve rehavet i\u00e7eren rallilerin ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street\u2019te rekorlar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ama alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: S&P 500 zirvede, NASDAQ 12 g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste art\u0131da. Brent %4,7 s\u0131\u00e7rarken VIX 13,5; rehavet ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan ralli i\u00e7in put korumas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44872\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}