WTI, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 89,60 dolara geriledi ve kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 89,50 dolar civar\u0131nda korudu. Bu hafta sonu yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00f6ncesinde arz endi\u015feleri (piyasada petrol bulunabilirli\u011fine dair kayg\u0131lar) azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlar gev\u015fedi.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7meyi kabul etti\u011fini, \u201cbedava petrol\u201d sunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ancak \u0130ran bunu do\u011frulamad\u0131. Trump ayr\u0131ca, gelecek hafta s\u00fcresi dolmadan (yani mevcut s\u00fcrenin biti\u015finden \u00f6nce) kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes sa\u011flanabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Trump, L\u00fcbnan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Joseph Aoun ve \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n, ABD Do\u011fu Saati\u2019ne (ET: ABD\u2019nin do\u011fu k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 saat dilimi) g\u00f6re saat 17.00\u2019de ba\u015flayacak 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
CNN, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019i \u201cbirka\u00e7 sald\u0131rgan eylemle\u201d su\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve top at\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki k\u00f6yleri vurdu\u011funu bildirdi. L\u00fcbnan ordusu, bildirilen ihlaller nedeniyle halk\u0131n g\u00fcneydeki kasaba ve k\u00f6ylere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ertelemesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 engellemesiyle (blokaj: ge\u00e7i\u015fleri fiilen durduracak bask\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar) pratikte kapal\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; bu da k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 (petrol\u00fcn d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131) konusunda endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor. ING, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyon varil petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (piyasaya ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131) tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, ABD\u2019de ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) 10 Nisan 2026\u2019da biten haftaya ili\u015fkin raporunda 2,9 milyon varillik stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, talebin (t\u00fcketim iste\u011fi ve kullan\u0131m) bir miktar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve en yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinde (front-month: vadesi en yak\u0131n i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k OPEC+ (OPEC ve m\u00fcttefik \u00fcreticiler) piyasaya destek veriyor. Grup, g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,2 milyon varillik \u00fcretim kesintilerini (\u00fcretimi k\u0131sma) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek arz\u0131 y\u00f6netiyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, stok art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen fiyatlar\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesini engelliyor. Kartelin (\u00fcretici grubun) disiplinli tutumu, ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Stok verilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc, OPEC+ politikas\u0131n\u0131n ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisi nedeniyle opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) 2025\u2019teki zirvelerden gerilese de h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek. Bu durum, fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (premium selling: opsiyon primi geliri elde etmeye y\u00f6nelik sat\u0131\u015f) gibi yakla\u015f\u0131mlara alan a\u00e7abilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin uzun pozisyonlar \u00fczerinde \u201ccovered call\u201d (elde spot\/uzun pozisyon varken al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak gelir elde etme) ya da \u201ciron condor\u201d (belirli bir fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m taraf\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon kombinasyonu) gibi stratejiler kullan\u0131labilir. Burada ama\u00e7, riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rarak dalgalanma satmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Vadeli e\u011fri (forward curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki fiyatlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu yap\u0131) 2025\u2019teki arz \u015fokuna g\u00f6re daha az \u201cbackwardation\u201d g\u00f6steriyor (backwardation: yak\u0131n vade fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzak vadeden y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131; k\u0131sa vadede arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini ima eder). Bu da piyasan\u0131n acil arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131ndan eskisi kadar kayg\u0131 duymad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle takvim spread i\u015flemleri (calendar spread: farkl\u0131 vadeler aras\u0131nda ayn\u0131 emtiada al-sat yaparak farktan yararlanma) alt\u0131 ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla daha az cazip olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, OPEC\u2019in sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel destek ile zay\u0131flayan talep sinyallerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu diren\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki mevcut fiyat band\u0131na odaklanabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: WTI 89,5 dolarda. ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00f6ncesi arz endi\u015fesi azal\u0131rken, ABD stoklar\u0131 art\u0131yor. OPEC+ kesintileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; volatilite y\u00fcksek, bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44862\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}