USD\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. 158,25 civar\u0131ndan toparlanarak Asya seans\u0131nda 159,00 ortalar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019dan (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama; son 200 mumun fiyat\u0131na daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) gelen tepkinin ard\u0131ndan geldi ve k\u0131sa vadeli bant hareketinin alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n bir noktadan d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomiye etkisine dair endi\u015feler ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) nisan ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu durum ABD dolar\u0131na talebi destekledi ve pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD donanma ablukas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n, \u015fubat sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi test ettikten sonra kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. \u0130ran\u2019la diplomasi umudu ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha gev\u015fek bir tutuma ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi beklentisi, dolar\u0131n daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan unsurlar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6stergeler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 de\u011fer al\u0131r, momentum g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir) 61\u2019e yak\u0131n. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama; trend ve momentum de\u011fi\u015fimini takip eder) pozitif b\u00f6lgede y\u00fckseliyor. Destek 159,47 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ek destek 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 158,46 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de tan\u0131d\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var; 2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yatay bant i\u00e7i i\u015flemlere benziyor. Yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Son Tankan anketi (BoJ\u2019un \u015firketlerin beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketi) imalat\u00e7\u0131 g\u00fcveninde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu tablo yeni faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Parite \u015fu anda 164,75 seviyesini test ediyor; bu, onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi ve piyasada tedirginlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 (risk art\u0131nca daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki deniz gerilimleri nedeniyle ABD dolar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek veriyor. Ancak ABD T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler ve faiz beklentilerinin ima etti\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k) art\u0131k Fed\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekten \u00f6nce faiz indirebilme ihtimalini %65 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un \u00e7ekingen, Fed\u2019in ise gev\u015femeye yakla\u015fan duru\u015fu aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 temel tema olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, USD\/JPY\u2019de 165,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedeflemek ad\u0131na al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 gev\u015femesi nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalma ihtimali bulundu\u011fundan, bo\u011fa call spreadi (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) do\u011frudan call almaya g\u00f6re daha uygun olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flarken \u00f6denen primi (opsiyon maliyeti) azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerden m\u00fcdahale riski (kur hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan piyasaya girme) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 2022 sonunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen do\u011frudan ad\u0131mlar ve 2024 boyunca gelen sert s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar buna \u00f6rnek. Parite bu zirvelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artar; bu da 300-500 pip (kurdaki en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck standart fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) gibi ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar, vade sonu k\u0131sa olan ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put; mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alarak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde y\u00fckselerek 159\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131. Yen, jeopolitik risk ve BoJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015fuyla zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. RSI\/MACD pozitif; 165 hedefleniyor. Fed indirimi ve m\u00fcdahale riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}