USD\/IDR, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda sert y\u00fckseldi ve 17.185-17.190 gibi rekor b\u00f6lgeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Parite haftay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor ve y\u00f6n h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n
Endonezya rupisi, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 ekonomik riskler nedeniyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Endonezya net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (\u00fcretiminden fazla petrol alan \u00fclke) oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ithalat maliyetlerini ve devletin enerji s\u00fcbvansiyonu (devlet deste\u011fi) faturas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim, Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n tahvil ve hisse (equity) piyasalar\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde tercih edilen varl\u0131klar) varl\u0131klara, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131na, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan para \u00e7ekmesi) tetikledi. Bu da son bir ayda USD\/IDR\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle \u015eubat sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131ndaki 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma e\u011filimi) destekledi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131yla dolar\u0131n daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede USD\/IDR\u2019de yukar\u0131 hareketi de s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/IDR kurunun 17.180 seviyesini a\u015farak yeni tarihi zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, rupi \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi, rupide beklenen ek zay\u0131flamadan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla USD\/IDR al\u0131m opsiyonunun (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131labilir. Bu tablo, paritenin 16.800 e\u015fi\u011fini ilk a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2025\u2019te ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na benziyor.<\/p>\n
Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi. Endonezya net ithalat\u00e7\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu, ekonomi \u00fczerinde ciddi y\u00fck olu\u015fturuyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki veriler, petrol ve do\u011fal gaz d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ithalat\u0131n ihracat\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131) 18 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da rupiyi jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha hassas h\u00e2le getiriyor. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, mevcut trendin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmesiyle yerel piyasalardan belirgin sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi (getiri\/yield: tahvilin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri) bu ay %7,8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n tahvil sat\u0131p gelirini rupiden \u00e7\u0131kararak ba\u015fka para birimlerine d\u00f6nmesiyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, ABD dolar\u0131na s\u00fcrekli talep yarat\u0131p kuru yukar\u0131 itiyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek unsurlar da var: Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklentisi ve Fed\u2019in yeni faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131. Bu nedenle ana strateji USD\/IDR\u2019de uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) olsa da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; kazanc\u0131 ve zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. B\u00f6ylece y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrerse kazan\u00e7 hedeflenirken, ralli aniden durursa zarar s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia\/BI) olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi izlenmeli. BI ge\u00e7mi\u015fte kuru dengelemek i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti. BI\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n elindeki yabanc\u0131 para stoku) y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde azald\u0131; bu, rupiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasada dolar sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131ndan daha sert ad\u0131mlar gelirse, USD\/IDR\u2019de keskin fakat muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekor alarm\u0131: USD\/IDR Asya\u2019da 17.185-17.190 band\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, haftay\u0131 yukar\u0131 kapat\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu riski ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131 rupiyi eziyor; sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrerken BI m\u00fcdahalesi izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44852\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}