USD\/JPY, haftal\u0131k en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 158,26 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yeniden 159,00\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 159,17\u2019deydi ve %0,11 art\u0131dayd\u0131. <\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD\u2019den gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k (baz\u0131 kalemlerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, baz\u0131lar\u0131nda zay\u0131f) verilerle birlikte g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) iki g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi olan 98,29\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n
Parite (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Ancak Japon yetkililer s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lara (kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u201cm\u00fcdahale edebiliriz\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamalar) ba\u015fvurabilir. Bu durum 160,00\u2019a ve y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirve olan 160,46\u2019ya do\u011fru hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. <\/p>\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI \u2013 fiyat\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve ne y\u00f6nde hareket etti\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00fckseli\u015f b\u00f6lgesinde kalsa da 50 seviyesine do\u011fru geriliyor. Bu, al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. <\/p>\n
159,50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (fiyat\u0131n bu seviyeyi a\u015farak kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131) 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. 160,00\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde s\u0131radaki seviyeler 160,46 ve 161,81 (10 Temmuz 2024) olur. <\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girebilece\u011fi b\u00f6lge) 159,00 ve ard\u0131ndan 158,26\u2019da. Bunun alt\u0131nda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 157,61\u2019de, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 156,97\u2019de. (SMA \u2013 basit hareketli ortalama; belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131yla trendi g\u00f6sterir.) <\/p>\n
2025 ortas\u0131nda parite 159,00\u2019u yeniden kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tablo benzerdi. O d\u00f6nemde RSI\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumundaki zay\u0131flama, piyasan\u0131n Japon yetkililerin kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131nad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren klasik bir i\u015faretti. 160,00 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lardan sonra tablo de\u011fi\u015fti. Japon yetkililer 2025\u2019in ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131\/kurumlar\u0131n piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkilemesi) yapt\u0131. Bu, 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda yen\u2019i savunmak i\u00e7in harcanan yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahaleye benzerdi. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bug\u00fcn benzer seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
Temel tarafta (faiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon gibi makro unsurlar) \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 arama stratejisi) 2025\u2019e g\u00f6re daha az cazip. Fed\u2019in politika faizini bir dizi ad\u0131mla yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,0\u2019a indirmesi ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde %0,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle faiz fark\u0131 darald\u0131. Bu da \u00f6nceki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri zay\u0131flat\u0131r. <\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bu durum, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re farkl\u0131 bir opsiyon (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 160,50 civar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale riski yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011finden, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 veya yatay\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cbear call spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call alarak prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility \u2013 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) 2025 zirvelerine g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fundan bu stratejilerin maliyeti g\u00f6rece daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olabilir. <\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE (CPI \u2013 t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) gibi veriler beklentiden zay\u0131f gelirse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlanabilir. 158,25\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkma, alg\u0131da belirgin de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret eder. Bu durumda bir sonraki destek olarak 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (moving average) g\u00fcndeme gelir; \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,80 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 158,26\u2019dan toparlan\u0131p 159 \u00fcst\u00fcnde; DXY g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ancak 160,00-160,46 band\u0131nda Japonya\u2019dan s\u00f6zl\u00fc\/fiili m\u00fcdahale riski var. RSI zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; 159,50 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 161,81, alt\u0131 158,26-157,80.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44840\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}