AUD\/USD, 0,7200 seviyesini a\u015famay\u0131nca Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini bitirdi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7165\u2019te yataya yak\u0131n kapand\u0131. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 0,7200 civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve son d\u00f6nemdeki yatay bant (fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta gidip gelmesi) i\u00e7inde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi. Mart ay\u0131nda \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi 17,9 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti 20 bin, \u015eubat ise 49,7 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019te kald\u0131. T\u00fcketici Enflasyon Beklentisi (halk\u0131n gelecek d\u00f6nemde enflasyonun ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oran) %5,2\u2019den %5,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda odak, \u015eubat sonundaki ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yd\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rken, yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ABD destekli abluka da s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte AUD\/USD 0,7164 civar\u0131nda, g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 0,7174\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda seyretti; Stokastik RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 89 seviyesindeydi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n genel y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yumu\u015fatarak g\u00f6sterir) 0,6995\u2019in ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 0,6770\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; Stokastik RSI 96 idi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131; RBA\u2019n\u0131n (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) politikalar\u0131ndan ve %2\u2013%3 enflasyon hedefinden, \u00c7in talebinden ve y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolarl\u0131k (2021) demir cevheri ihracat\u0131ndan etkilenir. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) de\u011fi\u015fimleri de AUD \u00fczerinde etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici art\u0131k merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6\u2019ya gerilerken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle RBA daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha az istekli, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyici) bir duru\u015f sinyali veriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) kal\u0131yor; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu durum faiz fark\u0131 kanal\u0131yla (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n kur \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131) Avustralya Dolar\u0131 aleyhine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen emtia r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Demir cevheri fiyat\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 105 dolara \u00e7ekildi; bunun arkas\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019den zay\u0131f talep var. Son imalat PMI verisi 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi; bu seviye daralmaya i\u015faret eder (50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme). Bu da Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k destek de\u011fil, bask\u0131 unsuru oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler de 2025\u2019teki arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon korkular\u0131ndan (arz kesintilerinin fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131) farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Odak, Orta Do\u011fu petrol arz\u0131 kesintilerinden k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve talep endi\u015felerine kayd\u0131. Bu \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7ok ekonomik temellerle beslendi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi, bask\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, erken 2025\u2019teki teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; o d\u00f6nemde geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. O zamanki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,7000 civar\u0131 gibi seviyeler, art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselirken zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu eski desteklere (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutundu\u011fu seviyeler) do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fler, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak izlenebilir. Daha kontroll\u00fc risk i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejileri de kullan\u0131labilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cput\u201d almak (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 ve riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 0,7200 a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131, AUD\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi bitti: RBA g\u00fcvercinle\u015firken Fed \u015fahin kal\u0131yor. \u00c7in talebi ve demir cevheri zay\u0131f, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f art\u0131yor; 0,7000-0,7200 band\u0131 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44836\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}