Netflix hisseleri, ilk \u00e7eyrek k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n Wall Street beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde %9\u2019dan fazla geriledi. GAAP EPS (genel kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f muhasebe kurallar\u0131na g\u00f6re hisse ba\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2r) 1,23 dolar oldu; bu rakam beklentinin 0,11 dolar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Hisse 107,88 dolardan d\u00fc\u015ferek k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 98,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Gelir 12,25 milyar dolar oldu ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %16 artt\u0131. Bu rakam, piyasa beklentisini 80 milyon dolar a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eirket, ikinci \u00e7eyrek (Q2) beklentisini tahminlerin alt\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n 12,57 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; piyasa beklentisi 12,63 milyar dolard\u0131. Q2 GAAP EPS (muhasebe standartlar\u0131na g\u00f6re hisse ba\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2r) tahmini 0,78 dolar; \u00f6nceki piyasa beklentisi 0,84 dolard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Netflix, 2026\u2019da Q2\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda i\u00e7erik amortisman\u0131 (i\u00e7erik harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n gider olarak zamana yay\u0131lmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00f6nem olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n orta-y\u00fcksek tek haneli seviyelere yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Q2 faaliyet marj\u0131 (operasyonlardan elde edilen k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131) %32,6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu oran ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde %34,1 idi.<\/p>\n
Q1\u2019de faaliyet marj\u0131 %32,3 oldu; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011finde %31,7 idi. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 geneli i\u00e7in beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fmedi: Gelir 50,7\u201351,7 milyar dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (b\u00fcy\u00fcme %12\u2013%14; kur etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %11\u2013%13) ve reklam gelirinin 2026\u2019da kabaca ikiye katlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
16 Nisan 2026\u2019daki seans sonras\u0131 sert %9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, korkunun etkisiyle k\u0131sa vadeli bir f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor. Piyasa, Q1\u2019deki k\u00e2r sapmas\u0131na ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi Q2 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen beklentilere sert tepki veriyor. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 ile \u015firketin de\u011fi\u015fmeyen y\u0131l geneli hedefleri aras\u0131nda bir gerilim yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in may\u0131s veya haziran vadeli put opsiyonu (hisse d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Bu strateji, hissenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 98 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmaya devam etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. Q2 faaliyet marj\u0131 tahmininin %34,1\u2019den %32,6\u2019ya gerilemesi, k\u0131sa vadeli olumsuz beklentiyi destekleyen bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Ancak z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in opsiyonlar pahal\u0131 hale geldi. Bu durum daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; 2022 ve 2024\u2019te bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 sert hareketler, opsiyon satanlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131nan gelir) elde etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in 90 veya 95 dolar gibi kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (put sat\u0131p, hisse d\u00fc\u015ferse al\u0131m\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak nakdi haz\u0131r tutma) se\u00e7ene\u011fini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc (kontraryen) bak\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in kritik konu, \u015firketin y\u0131l geneli beklentilerini tekrar teyit etmesi. Y\u00f6netimin %12\u2013%14 gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi hedefinde \u0131srarc\u0131 olmas\u0131, Q2 marj bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erik maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir sapma olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca VIX\u2019in (piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, S&P 500 beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) 18\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, piyasada tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tek hisse haberlerine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki verebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Reklam gelirinin 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k ikiye katlanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi de \u00f6nemli. Piyasa \u015fu an Q2\u2019deki marj daralmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131rken bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme unsurunu ikinci plana at\u0131yor. Analist raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, reklam destekli paket b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bu y\u0131l 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde gelir katk\u0131s\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, uzun vadeli de\u011ferleme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici.<\/p>\n
Daha dengeli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, risk ve maliyeti y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in spread (iki opsiyonu birlikte kullanarak risk\/getiri profilini ayarlama) stratejileri olabilir. Bo\u011fa put spreadi (daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put almak), s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Alternatif olarak takvim spreadi (yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyon sat\u0131p daha uzun vadeli opsiyon almak), beklenen \u201coynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden\u201d (bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gerilemesi) faydalan\u0131rken \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe do\u011fru olas\u0131 toparlanmaya pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Netflix\u2019te bilan\u00e7o \u015foku: Q1 GAAP EPS 1,23$ beklentinin 0,11$ alt\u0131nda, hisse seans sonras\u0131 %9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Gelir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (+%16). Ancak zay\u0131f Q2 rehberli\u011fi ve marj bask\u0131s\u0131, opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44833\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}