ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksayan deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle 98,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u201c\u00c7ifte t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k\u201d ve tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin k\u0131smen s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair haberler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran, ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi \u00fczerinden \u00f6denecek bir \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d \u00f6nerdi. Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ise do\u011frulanmad\u0131; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, hafta sonu olas\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkesin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130\u2019ye g\u00f6re 00:00\u2019da (EST 17:00) ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyordu. \u0130srail, G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki tampon b\u00f6lgede (askeri ayr\u0131m hatt\u0131) kuvvetlerin kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Hizbullah ise s\u00fcren her varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n direni\u015fi me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019e L\u00fcbnan\u2019da operasyon serbestisi tan\u0131nmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, sekiz g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 1,1780 civar\u0131na geriledi; GBP\/USD ise 1,3530 yak\u0131n\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. USD\/JPY 159,10\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken, AUD\/USD 0,7160 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) ve enerji g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fe odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI (ABD\u2019de Cushing teslim noktas\u0131 baz al\u0131nan ham petrol g\u00f6sterge fiyat\u0131) arz endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrerken varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93,90 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Alt\u0131n 4.789 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; olas\u0131 gerilim azalmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Takvimde s\u0131radaki ba\u015fl\u0131k, 17 Nisan Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD IMF toplant\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131. WTI fiyat\u0131; arz-talep dengesi, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki hareketler, API ve EIA stok verileri (iki kurumun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 stok de\u011fi\u015fimleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birbirine yak\u0131n seyreder) ve OPEC\u2019in 12 \u00fcyeli \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131 ile OPEC+\u2019\u0131n (OPEC\u2019e ek 10 \u00fclkenin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu daha geni\u015f \u00fcretici grubu) politikalar\u0131ndan etkilenir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar\u0131n di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finin s\u00fcrmesini hedefleyen se\u00e7enekler (opsiyonlar: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Jeopolitik belirsizlik, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (riskli varl\u0131klardan daha \u201cg\u00fcvenli\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neli\u015f) belirginle\u015ftiriyor; ana faydalan\u0131c\u0131 yine dolar oluyor. 2022\u2019deki jeopolitik belirsizlikte DXY\u2019nin 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, gerilim d\u00fc\u015fmezse 98,20 civar\u0131ndaki seviyenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksama, petrol taraf\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. WTI 93 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken, uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 (al\u0131m opsiyonu: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan hak) t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi veya diplomatik temaslar\u0131n sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 halinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu arz \u015foku, son y\u0131llarda OPEC+\u2019\u0131n disiplinli \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131yla zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan (arz\u0131n g\u00f6rece k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131) bir piyasaya denk geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in etkisi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilir.<\/p>\n
Risk ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerinde zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir; \u00f6zellikle Euro ve Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (enerjisinin yar\u0131dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelmesi), bu Orta Do\u011fu krizine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD ve AUD\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonlar\u0131 (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan hak) almak, gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na do\u011frudan bir pozisyon olabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.789 dolar gibi tarih\u00ee olarak y\u00fcksek bir seviyeye yak\u0131n olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki vermesi, piyasan\u0131n karars\u0131z oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bir yanda g\u00fcvenli liman talebi, di\u011fer yanda ate\u015fkes umudu var. Bu durum, y\u00f6n netle\u015fti\u011finde sert bir hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131k stratejilerini (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir call ve bir put alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) hafta sonu y\u00f6n belirginle\u015firse etkili olabilir. Mevcut y\u00fcksek fiyat, zaten \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015feyi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek bir gerilim azalmas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de \u201c\u00e7ifte t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k\u201d man\u015fetiyle DXY 98,20\u2019de tutunuyor; petrol 93,9 dolarda. Ate\u015fkes ve belirsiz temaslar izlenirken euro\/Avustralya dolar\u0131 bask\u0131da, opsiyonlarda dolar\/petrol lehine pozisyon aran\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44830\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}