Commerzbank\u2019tan Michael Pfister, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana G10 ve geli\u015fen piyasa (EM) carry trade<\/i> i\u015flemlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201ck\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde\u201d kazan\u00e7lar (ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f k\u00e2r) yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bunu, \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 piyasa hareketleri ve Brezilya reali ile Meksika pesosu gibi y\u00fcksek faiz getirisi sunan para birimleriyle ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Pfister, G10 carry stratejisinin ilk \u00e7eyrekte sadece faiz geliri (ta\u015f\u0131ma faizi) toplam\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bunu, faizin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u00f6viz kuru hareketlerinin de i\u015flemi desteklemesine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Pfister, carry stratejilerinin uzun vadede s\u00fcrekli (sistematik) olarak piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde getiri sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair veriye dayal\u0131 net bir kan\u0131t olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Kur hareketleri pozisyonla ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde oldu\u011funda carry\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadede iyi sonu\u00e7 verebilece\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca EM carry stratejilerinin son y\u0131llarda daha pop\u00fcler h\u00e2le geldi\u011fini ekliyor. Bloomberg EM Carry Trade Endeksi (EM carry i\u015flemlerinin performans\u0131n\u0131 izleyen g\u00f6sterge) 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sergiledi.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemdeki EM carry getirilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde faiz gelirinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. Kur etkisinin (faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz kurundaki de\u011fi\u015fimden gelen getiri\/zarar) 2024\u2019teki zay\u0131f performans sonras\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 toparlanma s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen piyasa i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6zellikle dikkatli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc performans\u0131n ana kayna\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz geliri iken, para birimleri 2024\u2019\u00fcn zay\u0131f seyrinden yeni toparlan\u0131yordu. Ancak bu toparlanman\u0131n h\u0131z kesti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu stratejide \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan Meksika pesosu, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %3\u2019ten fazla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu de\u011fer kayb\u0131, y\u00fcksek faizin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kazanc\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u015flemlere elveri\u015fli \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n sakin seyretmesi) ortam\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti. VIX endeksi (piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) art\u0131k 18 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde daha kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrediyor; bu, 2025\u2019in daha sakin d\u00f6nemlerine g\u00f6re belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda ani kur hareketleri, aylarca biriken faiz gelirini k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede silebilir. Tarihsel olarak carry i\u015flemleri, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011finde zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle USD\/MXN gibi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan paritelerde opsiyonlarla korunma (hedge) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli. Y\u00fcksek faizli para birimi \u00fczerinde put<\/i> opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, kurun aniden zay\u0131flamas\u0131 h\u00e2linde zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan net bir taban olu\u015fturur. B\u00f6ylece risk \u00f6nceden tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken i\u015flemden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 da korunur; mevcut de\u011fi\u015fken piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda bu daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Commerzbank\u2019tan Pfister\u2019e g\u00f6re 2025\u2019te G10\/EM carry \u201ck\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde\u201d g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; getirinin \u00e7o\u011fu faizden geliyor. Ancak artan VIX ve zay\u0131flayan MXN\/BRL kazanc\u0131 silebilir; opsiyonla hedge \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44828"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44828\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}