Standard Chartered ekonomistleri, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00fcresel **havale** (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n ailelerine g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi para) ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor. K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (GCC) ekonomilerinin M\u0131s\u0131r, Pakistan, Filipinler, Banglade\u015f ve Sri Lanka\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik havalelerde ba\u015fl\u0131ca kaynaklar oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi (**enerji fiyat \u015foku**) k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in temel risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar; bu durum uzarsa **durgunluk** (ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme) ihtimali do\u011fabilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. Petrol ve gaz arz\u0131nda (**tedarik**) fiziki kesinti riski ile bunun ekonomilere, \u00f6zellikle Asya\u2019ya, daha geni\u015f yans\u0131malar\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin de aksama ya\u015fayabilece\u011fini not ediyorlar. Bunun, bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde \u00fcretimin sonraki a\u015famalar\u0131n\u0131 (**a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00fcretim\/nihai \u00fcretime giden s\u00fcre\u00e7**) tehdit edebilece\u011fini ifade ediyorlar.<\/p>\n
Notta, GCC ekonomilerinin \u00e7ok say\u0131da **gurbet\u00e7i \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131** (expat: ba\u015fka \u00fclkede ya\u015fayan\/yabanc\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan) bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu ki\u015filerin g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi havalelerin al\u0131c\u0131 \u00fclkelerde **\u00f6demeler dengesini** (\u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyayla para giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f dengesi) destekledi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun, uluslararas\u0131 seyahat ve turizm i\u00e7in hem bir hedef hem de bir kaynak haline geldi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Havaleler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n etkisinin net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. COVID-19 d\u00f6neminde ilk tahminler havalelerin %20\u201340 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi, ancak 2020\u2019de k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,4 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomiye etkinin COVID-19 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fini belirtiyorlar. \u015eu ana kadar gurbet\u00e7i \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ayr\u0131lma oldu\u011funa dair bulgular oldu\u011funu ekliyorlar; ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma uzarsa ta\u015f\u0131nmalar artabilir ve havale ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 azalabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ana risk enerji fiyat \u015foku; bu, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00f6neme itebilir. Ge\u00e7en haftaki haberler ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde bozulmaya i\u015faret etti ve Brent petrol **vadeli kontratlar\u0131** (futures: ileri tarihte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bu y\u0131l ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeni arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in WTI veya Brent \u00fczerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, K\u00f6rfez\u2019den gelen havalelere \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimleri \u00fczerindeki daha geni\u015f etkileri izliyoruz; M\u0131s\u0131r ve Pakistan gibi. Hen\u00fcz kitlesel bir i\u015f\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 yok; ancak D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son raporu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde G\u00fcney Asya\u2019ya havale ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda %3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti ve bunu b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir risk olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. **T\u00fcrev** (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Filipin pesosu (PHP) veya Pakistan rupisi (PKR) gibi para birimlerinde **sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
2020 pandemisine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, havalelerin sert d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair ilk korkular\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca %2,4 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bu durum farkl\u0131; kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, pandeminin yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrden fiziki risk do\u011furur ve i\u015f\u00e7ilerin b\u00f6lgeden ta\u015f\u0131nma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu temel riskin (insanlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten b\u00f6lgeden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131) piyasa fiyatlar\u0131na hen\u00fcz tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Uzayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalindeki belirsizlik, piyasada tedirginlik yarat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d olarak bilinen **VIX** (beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi) son iki haftada 5 puan y\u00fckseldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, gerilimin artmas\u0131na do\u011frudan oynayan bir strateji olarak **oynakl\u0131k endekslerinde uzun pozisyon**u (long position: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon) de\u011ferlendirebilir; bu gerilim uluslararas\u0131 seyahat ve turizm gibi sekt\u00f6rleri de etkiliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 gerilim, havale ve piyasalarda yeni bir stres dalgas\u0131 m\u0131? Standard Chartered, GCC\u2019den M\u0131s\u0131r\/Pakistan\/Asya\u2019ya havalelerde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma uzarsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; enerji \u015foku riski, Brent 95$, VIX art\u0131\u015f\u0131, opsiyonlu korunma uyar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44821\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}