WTI ABD ham petrol\u00fc Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,50 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,45 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda ilerleme olabilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu son fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji ticareti i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksakl\u0131klarla desteklenmeye devam ediyor. B\u00f6lgede ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikili ablukaya ba\u011fl\u0131 kesintilerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, Bo\u011faz\u2019dan ge\u00e7ecek gemiler i\u00e7in olas\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretlerinin \u0130ran bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden tahsil edilece\u011fini bildirdi. Bu, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fczerinde daha fazla kontrol arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yeniden ba\u015flay\u0131p ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ge\u00e7en hafta sonu \u0130slamabad\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta kadar erken bir tarihte yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump ayr\u0131ca, L\u00fcbnan ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes ilan edildi\u011fini ve bunun Do\u011fu Saati ile 17.00\u2019de ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Haberde 16 Nisan\u2019da d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131larak, WTI\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn de\u011fil iki g\u00fcn s\u00fcren kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik fiyatlarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar) art\u0131r\u0131yor. Petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 35 seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, ge\u00e7en aya k\u0131yasla belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
Ana yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi \u201cdar bo\u011faz\u201d konumundaki (ge\u00e7i\u015fin tek bir noktaya s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik ge\u00e7it) Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n tamamen kapanmas\u0131. Bu durum, arz \u015foku (piyasaya gelen petrol\u00fcn aniden azalmas\u0131) nedeniyle h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tedarik krizini tetikleyebilir. Benzer gerilimlerin ilk \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert fiyat hareketleri, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 10-15 dolarl\u0131k \u201crisk primi\u201d (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen fazladan bedel) olu\u015fabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, \u201cvade\u201d (s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin biti\u015f tarihi) yak\u0131n kontratlarda vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, fiyat\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131labilecek bir y\u00f6ntem.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu, risk primini ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla silebilir. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir anla\u015fma ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00fcvenceye alman\u0131n yan\u0131nda, enerji kurumu tahminlerine g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden k\u00fcresel piyasaya d\u00f6nmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Olumlu diplomatik haber sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak \u201chedge\u201d (korunma\/riski dengeleme) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa konumlanma verileri, fon y\u00f6neticilerinin WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) zaten ciddi \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) biriktirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne y\u00fcklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kadar kalabal\u0131k bir pozisyonlanma, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler beklenmedik \u015fekilde iyi giderse h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cpozisyon \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi\u201d (unwind: pozisyonlar\u0131n aceleyle kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) riskini art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyenlerin bile, opsiyonlarla riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmas\u0131 veya vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss: belirlenen seviyede otomatik pozisyon kapatma) kullanmas\u0131 \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI %2,5 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 90,45 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki riskler ve ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisi fiyat\u0131 rehin al\u0131yor. OVX y\u00fckselirken, Bo\u011faz kapanmas\u0131 10-15 dolar prim; anla\u015fma sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44814\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}