ING ekonomisti, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta (BK) son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yaz aylar\u0131na girerken yava\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonun (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) temmuz sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 4\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 3\u2019e daha yak\u0131n. Bu da reel \u00fccretleri (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, i\u015fsizlikteki son art\u0131\u015fa ek bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u015eirketlerin fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn (maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131tabilme kapasitesi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131 da ekonomiyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ING, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini (Bank Rate; Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) 2026 boyunca y\u00fczde 3,75\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Karar\u0131n, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi dahil, s\u0131n\u0131rda oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son olumlu man\u015fetlere ra\u011fmen ekonominin temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozuluyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan \u015fu anda beklenenden daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha uzak, daha destekleyici) bir duru\u015fa g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son veriler de yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. ONS (Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi) verilerine g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, haftal\u0131k ortalama kazan\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019e kadar geriledi. Bu, reel \u00fccretlerin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve hane b\u00fct\u00e7eleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Mart ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 0,5 gerilemesi, t\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n belirginle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu artan zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l haziran ve sonraki toplant\u0131larda faizi y\u00fczde 3,75\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 4,4\u2019e y\u00fckselen i\u015fsizlik ve \u015firketlerin zay\u0131flayan fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fc, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir politika riski haline getiriyor. Banka, olas\u0131 bir durgunlu\u011fa girerken para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak (faiz art\u0131rarak ekonomiyi daha da so\u011futmak) istemeyecektir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli SONIA vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini (SONIA futures; sterlin gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli kontrat) alman\u0131n temkinli bir hamle olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu pozisyon, piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini geri \u00e7ekmesiyle kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir ve sabit politika faizi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fczle uyumludur. Mevcut forward e\u011frisi (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren fiyatlama) zorlu ekonomik ko\u015fullar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fazla sert g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin, \u00f6zellikle ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flama ihtimalini de g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) art\u0131yor. GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hareketsiz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir Fed ile z\u0131tla\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda sterlindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu i\u015flem, BK\u2019de zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon dengesinden faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu strateji i\u00e7in temel risk, hizmet enflasyonunun (\u00f6zellikle kira, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, restoran gibi hizmet kalemlerinde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) beklenmedik h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 veya bir sonraki \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verisinde s\u00fcrpriz s\u0131\u00e7rama olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131 emek piyasas\u0131 verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekir. Y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019in \u00fczerindeki bir \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, piyasada yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden zay\u0131f olabilir! ING, yaz\u0131n yava\u015flama ve enflasyonun %4\u2019e t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; \u00fccretler geriliyor. BoE faizi 2026 boyunca %3,75\u2019te tutabilir; sterlin bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44806\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}