ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, 10 Nisan haftas\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131nda 59 B (milyar k\u00fcbik feet) art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu rakam, 55 B beklentisinin \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
10 Nisan 2025 tarihli EIA do\u011fal gaz stok raporunda, stoklara 59 Bcf (milyar k\u00fcbik feet) gaz eklendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Art\u0131\u015f, 55 Bcf beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131 ve piyasada arz\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026\u2019daki bug\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasaya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer hatta daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. EIA verilerine g\u00f6re depolardaki kullan\u0131labilir gaz (sat\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131r stok) yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.330 Bcf seviyesinde. Bu miktar, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 \u00fczerinde ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck stok fazlas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretim. \u00d6zellikle Permian gibi petrol odakl\u0131 sahalardan \u00e7\u0131kan \u201ce\u015flik eden gaz\u201d (petrol \u00fcretimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda yan \u00fcr\u00fcn olarak \u00fcretilen do\u011fal gaz) ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Bu \u00fcretim, talebin mevsimsel olarak zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu ilkbahar \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminde\u201d (k\u0131\u015f ve yaz talebi aras\u0131ndaki sakin d\u00f6nem) talebi a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, en yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda (yak\u0131n teslimat tarihli kontratlar) y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha dar bir bantta hareket veya ek zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur. Mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde kalan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money call: fiyat mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerindeyken de\u011fer kazanan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) veya \u201cay\u0131 call spread\u201d kurmak (ayn\u0131 vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu t\u00fcr i\u015flemler, stoklar\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi ortamda avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak ufukta \u00f6nemli bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etken bulunuyor: LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ihracat kapasitesindeki art\u0131\u015f. Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde devreye girmesi beklenen yeni terminallerle, talepte yap\u0131sal bir art\u0131\u015f (kal\u0131c\u0131 nitelikte talep y\u00fckseli\u015fi) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f, mevcut arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 eritebilir. Terminallerin devreye giri\u015f zaman\u0131, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde piyasa dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi ile k\u0131\u015f kontratlar\u0131nda uzun vadede olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc aras\u0131nda belirgin bir fark yarat\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201ctakvim spread\u201dlerine (farkl\u0131 vadeler aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 i\u015flem) bakabilir veya 2026-2027 k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemini kapsayan uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (uzun vadeli call) tercih edebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla olas\u0131 bir fiyat toparlanmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Do\u011falgazda alarm: EIA stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 59 Bcf ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn 2.330 Bcf\u2019lik %35 \u00fczeri stok fazlas\u0131 fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fcretime kar\u015f\u0131n LNG kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131\u015f kontratlar\u0131nda toparlanma yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44801\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}