USD\/CHF Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar\u0131 sekiz g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlan\u0131nca \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite 0,7828 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,11 artt\u0131. <\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 97,83 dip seviyesinden sonra 98,20 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131, ancak alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Bu hareket, son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan teknik tepki al\u0131m\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanmas\u0131) olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. <\/p>\n
Piyasa, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair iyimserlikle \u015fekillendi. Bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerine (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen para birimleri) talebi azaltt\u0131. Bu hafta ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler g\u00fcndeme gelirken, n\u00fckleer konulardaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, anla\u015fma sa\u011flanmazsa g\u00fc\u00e7lerin yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ate\u015fkesin gelecek hafta sona ermesi bekleniyor. Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskleri takip edildi. <\/p>\n
SNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Martin Schlegel, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve ikinci tur etkiler (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha sonra \u00fccretler ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n erken ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. SNB tutanaklar\u0131nda, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonun enerji fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi, ancak fiyat istikrar\u0131 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. <\/p>\n
New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini ve bu y\u0131l enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,75\u2013%3 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (\u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131) 215 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 207 bine geriledi. Sanayi \u00fcretimi ise Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti %0,1 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. <\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti. Nisan 2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CHF 0,7828 civar\u0131ndayken dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131 yeni ba\u015fl\u0131yordu. Bug\u00fcn parite 0,8950 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyen ana unsurun faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te hem Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) hem de SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, ancak politikalar ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ilerlemedi. Fed\u2019in politika faizi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) %4,75\u2019te kal\u0131rken, SNB\u2019nin faizi %1,50 seviyesinde. Bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (faiz geliri i\u00e7in elde tutmay\u0131) cazip k\u0131lan pozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi (carry: faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan getiri) olu\u015fturuyor. ABD man\u015fet enflasyon (genel enflasyon) %2,8\u2019e geriledi, ancak Fed erken faiz indirimi konusunda temkinli. <\/p>\n
Bu tablo, USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) daha kontroll\u00fc bir strateji haline getirebilir. B\u00f6ylece faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken, azami risk (en fazla kay\u0131p) ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen belirsizlik yerini yeni jeopolitik risklere b\u0131rakt\u0131; oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert de\u011fi\u015fmesi) ise kal\u0131c\u0131. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te DXY\u2019nin 98,20\u2019den yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 teknik toparlanma zamanla kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trende d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn DXY 104,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalarak, sadece \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na de\u011fil, bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 207 bine d\u00fc\u015fmesi, s\u00fcren ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n i\u015faretiydi. Son haftalarda ba\u015fvurular ortalama 220 bin civar\u0131nda; bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa ve Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetmek (faizleri indirmek) i\u00e7in acelesi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, dolar\u0131n bir y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015finin temel dayanaklar\u0131ndan biri oldu. <\/p>\n
Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riski de \u00f6nemli. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) varil fiyat\u0131 85 dolar civar\u0131ndayken, enerji maliyetleri k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ortam, fiyat istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faizi koruma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi para birimlerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar endeksindeki teknik toparlanma ve artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla USD\/CHF Per\u015fembe y\u00fckseldi. Jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beslerken, y\u00f6n\u00fc Fed-SNB faiz fark\u0131 belirliyor; carry avantaj\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44800"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44800\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}