Japon hisse senetleri yeniden rekor seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Nikkei, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 sildi. Ancak Japonya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik uluslararas\u0131 portf\u00f6y a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 ve yen riskinden korunma (hedge) pozisyonlar\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki seviyelere d\u00f6nmedi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n Japonya tahsisi MSCI ACWI endeksindeki (k\u00fcresel hisse endeksi) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa yak\u0131nd\u0131; \u015fimdi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Yen ise, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kur riskinden korunma i\u015flemleri nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; Japon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yendeki pozisyonlanma esas olarak, Japonlar\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kur riskinden korunmas\u0131na (hedge: kur dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem) ba\u011fl\u0131. Veriler, hedge faaliyetinin mart\u0131n son haftas\u0131nda yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve giri\u015flerin (Japon varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelen yabanc\u0131 para) ABD ve di\u011fer piyasalara giden Japon \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re, bu hedge pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclene (unwind: pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) kadar Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz (FX) piyasas\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinin etkisi daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Rapor ayr\u0131ca durumu, \u201cbasis trading\u201d (iki benzer \u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131ndan yararlanma i\u015flemi) kapsam\u0131nda Japon devlet tahvilleri ile ABD tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki fiyat\/ getiri fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 i\u015flemlerle ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede temel belirleyici olarak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor; bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Japon hisseleri rekor seviyeleri geri ald\u0131; ancak uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n son k\u00fcresel gerginlikler \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeylere tam olarak d\u00f6nmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da Nikkei 225\u2019e para giri\u015fi olsa bile, bunun \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hedge edildi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 162,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda resmi m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek olsa da, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe k\u0131yasla daha az etkili kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Yen, yabanc\u0131 hedge i\u015flemlerinin s\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; bu durum piyasada s\u00fcrekli yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Varl\u0131k\/pozisyon verileri, Japon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu ak\u0131mlar\u0131 dengeleyecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sermaye g\u00f6ndermedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dengesizlik, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yen al\u0131m\u0131yla (m\u00fcdahale) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ak\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 koymas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 2022 sonundaki b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahaleler hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor; ancak mevcut hedge pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc daha da y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Mart 2024\u2019teki tarih\u00ee faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile yenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli gerilemesini durdurmakta yeterli olmad\u0131. IMM verileri, yene kar\u015f\u0131 spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n (net short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyonlar\u0131n neti) 2017\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da genel \u201cay\u0131\u201d e\u011filimini (bearish: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) do\u011fruluyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, m\u00fcdahale riskinden \u00e7ok BoJ\u2019un faiz ad\u0131m\u0131na odaklanmak demek. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck hedge pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, ancak BoJ\u2019un piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f patikas\u0131na (s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma temposu) i\u015faret etmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda izlenecek ana kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn Maliye de\u011fil, merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek \u201c\u015fahin\u201d s\u00fcrpriz (hawkish: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) opsiyonlarla (options: belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemeyi, USD\/JPY\u2019yi do\u011frudan satmaktan daha temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Straddle veya strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden iki y\u00f6nde de faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler) al\u0131m\u0131 etkili olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. B\u00f6ylece BoJ politika de\u011fi\u015fimi ihtimali de\u011ferlendirilebilir; BoJ \u00e7ekimser kal\u0131rsa yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi riskine do\u011frudan maruz kal\u0131nmaz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nikkei rekor tazeledi, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sildi; peki yabanc\u0131 neden d\u00f6nm\u00fcyor? K\u00fcresel a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, yen bask\u0131da. Dev hedge pozisyonlar\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleyi zay\u0131flatabilir; BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin faizi ana kataliz\u00f6r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44795\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}