Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, i\u015flemlerin ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin 2 hafta uzat\u0131labilece\u011fi ve bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi beklentisini yans\u0131tmas\u0131yla kademeli geriliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiziksel arz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Boru hatt\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeleri ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tanker hareketi hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyon varillik (13m b\/d) arz\u0131n kesintiye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Devam eden ABD ablukas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 bu kesintiyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Ka\u011f\u0131t piyasa ile fiziksel fiyat aras\u0131nda fark a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131: Fiziksel teslimata dayal\u0131 Dated Brent (k\u0131sa vadeli spot Brent g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 117 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, en yak\u0131n vadeli Brent vadeli kontrat\u0131 (futures: ileri tarihte teslimat\/fiyat \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 95 dolar\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda kapand\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bozulmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Al\u0131c\u0131lar ABD varillerine y\u00f6neldik\u00e7e, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki kesinti s\u00fcrerken ABD i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131nda arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri ABD\u2019de sondaj faaliyetleri neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) tahminleri, bu y\u0131l ABD ham petrol \u00fcretiminde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Sondajdaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcretime daha belirgin etkisinin 2027\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n
Petrol vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 ile sahadaki fiziksel ko\u015fullar aras\u0131nda ciddi kopukluk var. Fiziksel Dated Brent, en yak\u0131n vadeli kontrata g\u00f6re 20 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde primli i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu fark (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) piyasada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n kesin olmayan bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceden fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Fiziksel piyasa, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcren aksakl\u0131klar nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; bunun piyasadan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyon varil \u00e7ekti\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Son IEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) raporu bunu do\u011fruluyor: K\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,1 milyon varil h\u0131zla geriledi; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen, en yak\u0131n vadeli Brent kontratlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor; nedeni, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 umudu.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce 2025 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ko\u015fullara benziyor: Jeopolitik riskin hafife al\u0131nmas\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131n sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 d\u00fczeltmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar, vadeli piyasalar\u0131n fiziksel arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yeniden uyumlanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bozulma halinde risk daha \u00e7ok yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Beklenen ABD arz tepkisi gelmedi; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Baker Hughes sondaj kulesi say\u0131m\u0131 (rig count: aktif sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131, \u00fcretim e\u011filimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) ge\u00e7en cuma net yaln\u0131zca 3 yeni petrol kulesi eklendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; \u00fcreticilerin sondaj\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rmaya isteksiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131m eksikli\u011fi, ABD \u00fcretiminde anlaml\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar hissedilmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve piyasay\u0131 bu y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda arz \u015foklar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) nedeniyle, uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (long-dated call option: ileri vadede belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na maruz kal\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yarar. Alternatif olarak, takvim spread i\u015flemleri (calendar spread: farkl\u0131 vadelerde al-sat yaparak vade fark\u0131na oynayan strateji) ile e\u011frinin \u00f6n taraf\u0131n\u0131n (yak\u0131n vadeler) daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 uzak vadeli kontratlara g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nabilir; bu, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiziksel s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayabilir. Mevcut vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n jeopolitik duruma fazla iyimser yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar bar\u0131\u015f umuduyla gev\u015fiyor ama fiziksel daralma alarm veriyor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz aksamas\u0131 13 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn arz\u0131 kesiyor. Dated Brent 117$, yak\u0131n vade 95$; 20$+ spread yeniden fiyatlama sinyali. ABD arz tepkisi zay\u0131f, risk yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44794\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}