ABD\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretimi martta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Beklenti %0,1 art\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131na ait zay\u0131f sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, beklenen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f yerine %0,5 daralma g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir olumsuz sinyal. Bu, ekonominin tahmin edilenden h\u0131zl\u0131 yava\u015flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeyi gerektiriyor. Bunu, ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fclere duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in net bir uyar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda daha savunmac\u0131 (dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131) duru\u015f de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6zellikle sanayi ve temel malzeme sekt\u00f6rlerini izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF: bir endeksi\/sepetteki hisseleri takip eden fon) XLI gibi ara\u00e7lar \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, imalat verilerindeki zay\u0131flama daha geni\u015f bir piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne gelmi\u015fti. Mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda S&P 500\u2019de (ABD\u2019nin geni\u015f hisse endeksi) y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rarak\/finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak) savunmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da sabit getirili taraf\u0131 (tahvil piyasas\u0131) destekleyebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (Treasury note futures: ileride teslim\/uzla\u015fmayla i\u015flem g\u00f6ren tahvil s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Piyasa, bundan sonra Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (daha gev\u015fek politika, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli) bir \u00e7izgiyi fiyatlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Beklenmedik yava\u015flama, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) art\u0131rabilir. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi) \u015fu s\u0131ralar 14 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye tarihsel olarak g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve uzun volatilite (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon) i\u00e7in giri\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip olabilir. Olas\u0131 bir hisse senedi sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla (hedge: risk azaltma) 30-45 g\u00fcn vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 tercih ediliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131layabilir. Fed\u2019in daha az agresif olmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n faiz getirisi avantaj\u0131n\u0131 (yield advantage: daha y\u00fcksek faiz nedeniyle cazibe) azalt\u0131r. Bu nedenle dolar endeksinde (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon verisinin beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesiyle Euro \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz daralma alarm veriyor: ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi martta %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; %0,1 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flayabilir; savunmac\u0131 hisse, uzun tahvil\/volatilite, zay\u0131f dolar senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44793\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}