K\u00fcresel hisse senetleri rekor seviyelerde ve ABD Dolar\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n IMF daha zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yay\u0131mlad\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n DXY\u2019yi yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ll\u0131k bu bantta tuttu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD uzun vadeli menkul k\u0131ymetlerine (uzun vadeli tahvil ve benzeri yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) s\u00fcren talebi de dolar i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli destek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Treasury International Capital (TIC) verilerine g\u00f6re, \u015eubat ay\u0131na kadar olan 12 ayda yabanc\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar 1.615 milyar dolarl\u0131k uzun vadeli ABD menkul k\u0131ymeti biriktirdi. Bu kalemler; Hazine tahvilleri (devlet bor\u00e7lanma senetleri), \u015firket tahvilleri (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131), hisseler, devlet destekli kurum tahvilleri ve di\u011fer uzun vadeli ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kaps\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az dolar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde, ABD uzun vadeli menkul k\u0131ymetlerine yabanc\u0131 talebin zamanla zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durum, ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (ithalat\u0131n ihracattan fazla olmas\u0131) daraltma \u00e7abalar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. D\u0131\u015far\u0131ya daha az dolar gitmesi, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki dolarlar\u0131n yeniden ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na d\u00f6nerek de\u011ferlendirilmesi (dolar\u0131n \u201cgeri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi\u201d) ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri) bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da politika faizini %3,25\u2013%3,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekebilir. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar tek faiz indirimi senaryosu, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 kurulu olan FOMC\u2019nin (Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi) projeksiyonlar\u0131yla uyumlu temel senaryo olarak da an\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini ikinci plana iterek ABD\u2019de toparlanma anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. IMF yak\u0131n zamanda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %3,2 ile yatay seyredece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak g\u00f6reli ABD ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fc bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131n toparlanmada kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni d\u00f6ng\u00fc zirveleri yapmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Fed\u2019in faizi %5,25\u2013%5,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan faiz farklar\u0131, DXY\u2019yi daha yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki 103,00\u2013107,00 band\u0131nda tutmaya devam ediyor. Bu istikrar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisini sat\u0131p prim toplama) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD uzun vadeli menkul k\u0131ymetlerine talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor; bu da dolar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Son TIC verileri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda tek bir ayda 51,6 milyar dolarl\u0131k net yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fine i\u015faret etti. ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na s\u00fcren i\u015ftah, para birimini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ABD uzun vadeli menkul k\u0131ymetlerine yabanc\u0131 i\u015ftah\u0131n zamanla zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netme \u00e7abalar\u0131, zaman i\u00e7inde yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az dolar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecek. Bu da s\u00f6z konusu fonlar\u0131n ABD menkul k\u0131ymetlerine yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilmesi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri art\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar muhtemelen yaln\u0131zca bir veya iki faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, \u00f6nceki beklentilere g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu durum, band i\u00e7inde seyir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor ve EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde straddle veya strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. (Straddle: ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak dalgalanma \u00fczerine pozisyon; strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla benzer yakla\u015f\u0131m. \u201cSatmak\u201d, y\u00fcksek prim toplamak i\u00e7in dalgalanman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek demektir.) Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, z\u0131mni volatilitenin (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) beklenen istikrara g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu alanlarda f\u0131rsat aramal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekor hisseler ve IMF\u2019nin zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme uyar\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n dolar nefes ald\u0131: DXY\u2019nin 96-100\/103-107 bantlar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yabanc\u0131 tahvil i\u015ftah\u0131 destek, Fed\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 indirim volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44790\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}