ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, 10 Nisan\u2019da biten haftada 209,75 bin seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde 209,5 bin d\u00fczeyindeydi.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamadaki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmiyor. Aksine piyasada istikrar\u0131n ve \u201cs\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gitmesi i\u00e7in fazla gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re, faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz hareketlerine g\u00f6re de\u011ferlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) taraf\u0131ndaki pozisyonlar\u0131, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlanan faiz indirimlerinin azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine g\u00f6re ayarlamak gerekir. Mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,7\u2019de kalmas\u0131yla, SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faiz i\u00e7in referans olan gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 kontratlar) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarda, sert bir gev\u015femeye (h\u0131zl\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz indirimlerine) kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alan stratejiler cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasa, ilk faiz indiriminin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131na \u00f6teleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda ise bu istikrarl\u0131 istihdam verileri, \u00f6nemli bir \u201ckuyruk riskini\u201d (nadir ama b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131p yaratabilen risk) azaltarak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutabilir. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenecek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 14 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin S&P 500\u2019de \u201ccovered call\u201d (elde hisse\/ETF tutarken ayn\u0131 varl\u0131k \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 destekler; ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizler, genel piyasa y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131nda, benzer \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verilerinin faiz beklentilerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem unutulmamal\u0131. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Williams\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki \u201c%2 enflasyona gidi\u015fin belirsiz\u201d oldu\u011funa dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in erken faiz indirimiyle ge\u00e7mi\u015f hatalar\u0131 tekrarlamak istemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015funa kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131rken temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 209,75 bine y\u00fckselse de piyasa s\u0131k\u0131. Fed\u2019e erken faiz indirimi alan\u0131 yok; \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz daha uzun\u201d temas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, opsiyonlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44786\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}