EUR\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,15 d\u00fc\u015ferek 187,30 civar\u0131na indi. Parite, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri korunan 187,00 \u00fczerindeki yatay bantta (konsolidasyon: fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hareket, piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcncellenen Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verilerini de\u011ferlendirmesi ve ECB\u2019den (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) gelecek mesajlar\u0131 beklemesiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Revize veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP\u2019nin (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) martta ayl\u0131k %1,3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu oran \u015fubattaki %0,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve ilk tahmin olan %1,2\u2019nin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Y\u0131ll\u0131k HICP, %1,9\u2019dan %2,6\u2019ya revize edilerek Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,4\u2019ten %2,3\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana nedeni olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dikkatler 29\u201330 Nisan\u2019daki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, bankan\u0131n faiz konusunda \u201ctamamen \u00e7evik\u201d (veriye g\u00f6re h\u0131zl\u0131 uyarlanabilir) kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde) \u00f6n yarg\u0131yla yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar yine de bu y\u0131l iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 1\/100\u2019\u00fc; 25 bp = 0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Nisan i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Reuters, ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131k neredeyse tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (piyasa beklentilerine yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131) aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Takayama, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin d\u00f6viz kuru ileti\u015fimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yetkililer, yenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama hedefini yineledi; k\u0131sa vadede piyasa etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riski (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) ve ECB\u2019nin temkinli kalma ihtimali de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Japon yetkililer yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan rahats\u0131z. 2022 sonlar\u0131nda para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcayarak yapt\u0131klar\u0131 do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalenin etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6te yandan Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,3\u2019e gerilemesi, Lagarde\u2019a faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemek ve \u201c\u00e7evik\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
2025 i\u015flem ortam\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin g\u00f6rece sabit seyretti\u011fi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ise \u00e7ok gev\u015fek (ultra g\u00fcvercin: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizi uzun s\u00fcre korumaya e\u011filimli) duru\u015f sergiledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirleyici oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda EUR\/JPY\u2019yi belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut tablo, bu yerle\u015fik trend i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
30 Nisan\u2019daki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc ikili risk (sonucun iki u\u00e7 senaryoda fiyat\u0131 sert oynatabilmesi) ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle opsiyon almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir. Uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak; ama\u00e7 y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan oynakl\u0131ktan kazanmak) stratejisinde, 187,30\u2019a yak\u0131n bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve may\u0131s ortas\u0131 vade se\u00e7ilerek fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne sert k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketten faydalanma hedeflenir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, merkez bankas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n sonucunu tahmin etmeden yakla\u015fan volatiliteyi (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz revize enflasyon EUR\/JPY\u2019yi sall\u0131yor: Parite 187,30\u2019a gerilerken ECB mesajlar\u0131 ve Haziran faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019dan m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor; 30 Nisan \u00f6ncesi long straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44781\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}