Mart ay\u0131nda Avustralya\u2019da istihdam, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde paralel geldi. Toplam istihdam 17,9 bin artarak RBA ve piyasa beklentisi olan 20 binin az alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise %4,3\u2019te de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
Tam zamanl\u0131 istihdam (haftal\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcresi daha uzun ve d\u00fczenli i\u015f) 52,5 bin artt\u0131. Yar\u0131 zamanl\u0131 istihdam (daha az saatli i\u015f) ise \u015fubattaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 34,6 bin geriledi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ya da i\u015f arayanlar\u0131n n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131) %66,9\u2019dan %66,8\u2019e indi; bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 zamanl\u0131 i\u015flerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen toplam \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saatler artt\u0131. Martta hem tam zamanl\u0131 hem yar\u0131 zamanl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saatler y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,5 y\u00fckseldi. Bu oran Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,9 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilir. 29 Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131 faiz karar\u0131nda kritik bir girdi olup Avustralya dolar\u0131 beklentilerini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
RBA Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Andrew Hauser, Washington DC\u2019de Uluslararas\u0131 Finans Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IIF) K\u00fcresel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Forumu\u2019nda konu\u015ftu. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u0130ran \u015foku\u201dna (jeopolitik geli\u015fmenin enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ekonomiyi sarsmas\u0131) \u201colduk\u00e7a s\u0131cak\u201d (talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Daha y\u00fcksek benzin fiyatlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan faaliyetle birlikte olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 anlatman\u0131n zorlu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Mart istihdam verisi piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etki yaratmad\u0131; i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131 RBA\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etti. Bu tablo, oda\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015fan enflasyon verisine \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n
Ana g\u00fcndem, 29 Nisan\u2019daki 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE verisi. \u201c\u0130ran \u015foku\u201dnun petrol fiyatlar\u0131na etkisi bu veride belirleyici olabilir. Brent petrol son alt\u0131 haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2024 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) almaya y\u00f6nelebilir. AUD\/USD paritesinde (Avustralya dolar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131) \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynama) etkili olabilir. Parite \u015fu anda 0,6550 civar\u0131nda dar bantta seyrediyor. Bu strateji, enflasyonun beklentiden y\u00fcksek ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak sert hareket ihtimaline pozisyon al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
RBA Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da piyasan\u0131n may\u0131s faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fine, faiz swap\u0131 gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (taraflar\u0131n belirli vadede sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pozisyon almak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Mevcut fiyatlamalar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %40 g\u00f6steriyor; enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu oran d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Avustralya\u2019da mart istihdam\u0131 beklentiye yak\u0131n: i\u015fsizlik %4,3, tam zamanl\u0131 +52,5 bin. Piyasa \u015fimdi 29 Nisan T\u00dcFE\u2019ye kilitlendi; petrol \u015foku enflasyonu, RBA\u2019da may\u0131s faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fckseltebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44779\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}