Yen, ABD dolar\u0131 gerilerken bile zay\u0131f kald\u0131; USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n. Gece i\u015flemleri sert dalgaland\u0131; Japon politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131ndan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uyar\u0131lar sonras\u0131 USD\/JPY 158,27\u2019ye indi.<\/p>\n
Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama, G7 \u00fcyelerine Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cy\u00fcksek aciliyet\u201d ile izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Yetkililerin \u201cpiyasalar\u0131 kesinlikle sakinle\u015ftirmesi gerekti\u011fini\u201d de belirtti ve Scott Bessent ile yak\u0131n temasta kalma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puan (bps) art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. Baz puan, faizde y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 100\u2019de 1\u2019i olan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm birimidir (5 bps = 0,05 puan). Bu, Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli art\u0131\u015fa piyasay\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde haz\u0131rlamayan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re BoJ, \u201cson ana kadar\u201d ekonomi ve fiyatlar (enflasyon) \u00fczerindeki etkileri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri izleyecek. Haberde ayr\u0131ca BoJ yetkilileri aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131yor, ancak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve\/veya likiditeyi k\u0131sma) ertelenmesi, h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00fczerinde yeni bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; yetkililer yene destek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan ad\u0131m atmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; ABD dolar\u0131ndaki genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019nin yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemesiyle yetkililer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bu da s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131n daha sertle\u015fti\u011fi gergin bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; \u00f6zellikle 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda benzer uyar\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasaya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale gelmi\u015fti. O d\u00f6nemde 160,00 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra yetkililer devreye girmi\u015f ve 9 trilyon yenden fazla harcayarak USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut resmi dil, benzer bir senaryonun yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan ara\u00e7lar) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilitenin (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. \u00c7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert bir hareket riski, spot (anl\u0131k kurdan) pozisyonlar\u0131 daha tehlikeli hale getirir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleyle gelebilecek h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) gibi opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Yendeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temel nedeni, Japonya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5, Japonya\u2019daki benzeri ise %0,9 civar\u0131nda; aradaki fark 360 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli dolara ge\u00e7meyi i\u00e7eren \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi\u201dni (carry trade) \u00e7ok k\u00e2rl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu zeminde USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon (kurun y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan i\u015flem) temelde anla\u015f\u0131labilir, ancak riskli bir tercihtir. Daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, bu pozisyonu \u201czarar kesintisini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan\u201d bir ara\u00e7la korumakt\u0131r: Paran\u0131n \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201d g\u00fcncel seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131. Bu opsiyonlar sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r; Japon yetkililer m\u00fcdahale eder ve parite sert d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen direnemiyor: Dolar geri \u00e7ekilse de USD\/JPY 160\u2019a dayand\u0131. BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri s\u00f6n\u00fcyor, Tokyo\u2019nun uyar\u0131lar\u0131 sertle\u015fiyor. 2024\u2019teki gibi m\u00fcdahale riski ve volatil opsiyon talebi artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44778\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}