ABD Dolar\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi ederek USD\/JPY paritesini yeniden 159,00 seviyesinin az \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda \u0130ran\u2019la artan gerilimi, bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecine dair iyimserli\u011fi azalt\u0131nca parite y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Avrupa i\u015flem saatlerinde Dolar, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) orta seviyede kald\u0131. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na abluka uygulamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde gemi trafi\u011fini k\u0131s\u0131tlama tehdidi, piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 bozdu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar daha \u00f6nce ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakereler ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ihtimaline dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na tepki vermi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olarak, \u0130srail g\u00fcvenlik kabinesi \u00fcyesi Galia Gamliel, Ba\u015fbakan Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019nun L\u00fcbnan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Joseph Aoun ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Takayama, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin ard\u0131ndan Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 konusunda ileti\u015fimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Yen\u2019in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na (kurun h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesine) kar\u015f\u0131 duru\u015funa i\u015faret etse de piyasa tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde odak, nisan ay\u0131 Philadelphia Fed \u0130malat Anketi\u2019ne (Philadelphia b\u00f6lgesinde sanayi faaliyetini \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) ve mart ay\u0131 ABD Sanayi \u00dcretimi verisine (fabrika, maden ve enerji \u00fcretimindeki de\u011fi\u015fim) kayabilir. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams ve Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Stephen Miran\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen ve piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken bir alan. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) de\u011ferlendirmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Cboe\/CME FX Yen Volatilite Endeksi (JYVIX) \u015fu anda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve 12,5 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 8,0 dip seviyesine g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015f. Bu durum, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tokyo\u2019dan yeni bir m\u00fcdahale (kurun y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc etkilemek i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m yoluyla yap\u0131lan resmi i\u015flem) riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019de do\u011frudan \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (paritenin y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli olabilir. Ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzak; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gereken) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) ya da USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) y\u00f6ntemi sunar. Bu strateji, ge\u00e7en sonbaharda m\u00fcdahaleler s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen birka\u00e7 yenlik h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere benzer sert geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc korur.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerinde temkinli duru\u015fu nedeniyle dolar lehine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in \u201crisk reversal\u201d (ayn\u0131 anda bir opsiyon al\u0131p di\u011ferini satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren yap\u0131) stratejisi uygun olabilir. Bu strateji, USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131rken ayn\u0131 anda USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; b\u00f6ylece paritenin kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Bu i\u015flemin temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) belirgin olmas\u0131d\u0131r: ABD faizleri %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrederken Japonya\u2019da faizler h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ABD verileri, \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en en temel enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) kritik olacak. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son iki T\u00dcFE verisi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelerek Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Enflasyonda bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri daha, USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve Japon yetkililerin sabr\u0131n\u0131 test edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi Dolar\u2019a talep getirirken USD\/JPY 159 \u00fcst\u00fcne d\u00f6nd\u00fc. JYVIX 12,5 ile sert oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; Tokyo m\u00fcdahalesi riski y\u00fckselirken veriler ve Fed mesajlar\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44776"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44776\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}