\u00c7in\u2019in 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek (Q1) GSYH\u2019si (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu oran, 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011findeki (Q4) %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve piyasadaki ortak beklenti olan %4,8\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin %4,5\u2013%5,0 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli te\u015fvik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, sanayi ve kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201ciki vitesli\u201d bir ekonomiye i\u015faret ediyor. Sanayi \u00fcretimi (fabrika \u00fcretimi) martta y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,7 artt\u0131; beklenti %5,5\u2019ti. Ancak ocak\u2013\u015fubat d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re h\u0131z kesti; bunda \u00c7in Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Ay Takvimi Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131) takvim etkisi de rol oynad\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici taraf\u0131 zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar martta y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,7 y\u00fckseldi; %2,5 beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %2,8 seviyesinden geriledi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 (yol, k\u00f6pr\u00fc, enerji gibi kamu projeleri) ilk \u00e7eyrekte %8,9 artt\u0131; 2025 sonundan beri h\u0131zlanan devlet tahvili ihrac\u0131 (kamu bor\u00e7lanma senedi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi. Ankete dayal\u0131 kentsel i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %5,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Rapor, daha dengeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ithal petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bu y\u0131l \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (People\u2019s Bank of China) faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisinin ilk \u00e7eyrekte %5,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle birlikte, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimali belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, karar vericilere bekle-g\u00f6r alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca ithal petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015fesini art\u0131r\u0131yor; Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel referans petrol fiyat\u0131) son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 ara\u00e7larla i\u015flem yapanlar; \u00f6rn. opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, agresif parasal gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimiyle destek) oynayan pozisyonlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d (ne gev\u015fek ne s\u0131k\u0131) bir politika duru\u015funa haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerle faiz fark\u0131 (faiz oran\u0131 makas\u0131) yak\u0131ndan izlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in yuan\u0131 destekleyebilir. 2025 boyunca ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizleri y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011fu i\u00e7in yuan \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklemede kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131yken, yuan\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 ya da bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na (dar aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131na) oynayan opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/CNH paritesinde (ABD dolar\u0131\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131 \u2013 offshore; \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yuan piyasas\u0131) \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck opsiyon) satmak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi \u00fcretimi ile zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015flar aras\u0131ndaki belirgin ayr\u0131\u015fma, geni\u015f piyasa yerine daha hedefli sekt\u00f6r i\u015flemlerine i\u015faret ediyor. \u201cPair trade\u201d (e\u015fle\u015fmi\u015f i\u015flem; bir varl\u0131kta y\u00fckseli\u015fe, di\u011ferinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ayn\u0131 anda pozisyon) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: Sanayi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) al\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 anda t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcama endekslerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) almak gibi. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, devlet destekli sekt\u00f6rlerle temkinli hanehalk\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki performans fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
Altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki %8,9\u2019luk art\u0131\u015f, sanayi emtialar\u0131n\u0131 (bak\u0131r, al\u00fcminyum gibi \u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan ham maddeler) do\u011frudan destekliyor; bu e\u011filim 2025 sonunda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti. Bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat verileriyle y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; bu da baz metallerde (bak\u0131r, \u00e7inko gibi sanayi metalleri) momentumun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Devlet \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bu ivme dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir toparlanmaya oynamaktansa sanayi metallerinde vadeli i\u015flemler veya opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin devam\u0131na g\u00f6re konumlanmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi: Q1 GSYH %5,0 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131, te\u015fvik bask\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131. Sanayi %5,7 ve altyap\u0131 %8,9 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; perakende %1,7 zay\u0131f. Faiz indirimi ihtimali d\u00fc\u015ferken yuan, sanayi metalleri ve pair trade \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44775\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}