EUR\/CHF Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,9230 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin revize edilen Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviye olan 0,9215\u2019ten toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP: Avrupa genelinde enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en ortak g\u00f6sterge) Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,3 artt\u0131. Bu oran \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve ilk tahmin olan %1,2\u2019nin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Y\u0131ll\u0131k HICP %2,6\u2019ya revize edildi; %1,9\u2019dan yukar\u0131 geldi ve Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji, g\u0131da, alkol ve t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7 tutulur; fiyatlar\u0131n daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterir) \u015eubat\u2019taki %2,4\u2019ten y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3\u2019e geriledi. ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) 19 Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde yay\u0131mlanacak. Bir sonraki faiz karar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 29\u201330 Nisan\u2019da.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar bu y\u0131l iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor (baz puan: faizde 0,01 puan; 25 baz puan = %0,25). Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re Nisan\u2019da ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, Haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise neredeyse tamamen fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) tutanaklar\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 belirsizliklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. SNB, 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 ve 2027\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekliyor.<\/p>\n
SNB, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; enflasyonun enerji etkisiyle ge\u00e7ici olarak y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini, ard\u0131ndan tekrar gerileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Tutanaklar Frang\u2019da anl\u0131k bir tepki yaratmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 nedeniyle Euro\u2019nun \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in net bir alan g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ECB artan enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken, SNB belirsiz b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc nedeniyle temkinli duru\u015funu koruyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/CHF i\u00e7in daha kolay y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Revize Euro B\u00f6lgesi y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu olan %2,6 Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye ve bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleyen ana unsur. Art\u0131\u015fta enerji maliyetleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2025 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 ise ECB\u2019nin \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131\u201d a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha net bir foto\u011fraf g\u00f6rmesini sa\u011flar; bu da daha \u015fahin (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f ihtimalini y\u00fckseltir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta SNB\u2019nin zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri, \u0130svi\u00e7re imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde daralma g\u00f6steren verilerle destekleniyor. Son Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI: 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 daralma sinyali) 48,5 oldu. Bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor ve SNB\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tablo, yak\u0131n vadede SNB\u2019nin Frang\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale etmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, 29\u201330 Nisan\u2019daki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/CHF\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131n (belirli vadede, belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. May\u0131s veya Haziran vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) sat\u0131n almak, ECB\u2019den gelebilecek daha \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu stratejide risk, opsiyon primiyle (opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dalgalanma ortam\u0131na g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. EUR\/CHF i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %7,5 civar\u0131nda; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 olan %5,8\u2019in belirgin \u00fczerinde. Bu, merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k daha da artmadan \u00f6nce pozisyon alman\u0131n avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/CHF 0,9230\u2019da yatay; revize Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu (%2,6) Euro\u2019yu destekledi. ECB daha \u015fahinle\u015firken SNB b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131l\u0131. Ayr\u0131\u015fma yukar\u0131 potansiyel do\u011furuyor; opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44774\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}