AUD\/JPY, 6 Nisan\u2019da ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde 114,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kanal i\u00e7inde (fiyat\u0131n iki paralel \u00e7izgi aras\u0131nda kademeli y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n
Fiyat, 9 ve 50 d\u00f6nemlik \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) \u00fczerinde. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 70,00 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde; bu da \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi) ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Parite, seans\u0131n erken saatlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 114,20 seviyesindeki zirveye yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Yukar\u0131da izlenecek bir sonraki seviye, kanal \u00fcst band\u0131 olan 114,70 civar\u0131.<\/p>\n
Destek, 9 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 112,76\u2019da; ard\u0131ndan kanal alt band\u0131 111,70 civar\u0131nda. Kanal\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi halinde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 110,61 seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
110,61\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkma, oda\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k iki aya yak\u0131n dip b\u00f6lgesi olan 108,79 civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Rapordaki teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi ivmenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etse de RSI\u2019\u0131n \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d sinyali vermesi, do\u011frudan uzun pozisyonun (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan i\u015flem) riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle opsiyonlar (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 114,70 kanal s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na y\u00f6nelik May\u0131s vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynar) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread: bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) de ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 boyunca g\u00fc\u00e7lenen temel unsurlarla da destekleniyor. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor: Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %4,35 iken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %0,1 civar\u0131nda. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131, ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemine (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) ilgiyi canl\u0131 tutuyor ve Avustralya dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 (AUD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flemler) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle RSI y\u00fcksek seyrederken 112,76 deste\u011fine do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilme riski g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Bu risk, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar) al\u0131m\u0131yla dengelenebilir; b\u00f6ylece mevcut uzun pozisyonlar korunur veya ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 olu\u015fur. 2025 ortas\u0131nda benzer \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert ancak k\u0131sa d\u00fczeltmeler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir koruma i\u015flemi daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 gibi d\u0131\u015f etkenler izleniyor; fiyatlar zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Emtialarda (ham madde) yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve \u00c7in\u2019den olumlu ekonomik sinyaller, \u00e7aprazda (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn) ta\u015f\u0131ma fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY\u2019de ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 114,10\u2019da kanal i\u00e7i y\u00fckseli\u015f, EMA\u2019lar destekli; RSI 70 \u00fcst\u00fc \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d uyar\u0131yor. 114,70 diren\u00e7, 112,76\/111,70 destek. Opsiyonlarla kontroll\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44772\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}