EUR\/USD, Mart ay\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti ve yeniden 1,18 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, piyasan\u0131n ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini azaltmas\u0131yla geldi; Haziran\u2019da art\u0131\u015f beklentisi ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin, farkl\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini masada tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 19 Mart tarihli ECB toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ard\u0131ndan Washington\u2019da baz\u0131 ECB yetkililerinden gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar izlenecek.<\/p>\n
ING, EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,18 seviyelerinden al\u0131m konusunda temkinli. Olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirse paritenin 1,1700\u2019e geri \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6neme d\u00f6nersek, EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,18\u2019e toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; piyasa, ECB\u2019nin Nisan\u2019daki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesini) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden gelmi\u015fti. ECB, Haziran\u2019daki \u00f6nceden fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131; ancak bug\u00fcn tablo \u00e7ok farkl\u0131. \u015eu anda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) belirgin \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn EUR\/USD 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken tart\u0131\u015fma, art\u0131k art\u0131\u015flardan \u00e7ok faiz indirimlerinin (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmenin) ne zaman ve ne h\u0131zda gelece\u011fine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Mart 2026 enflasyonu %2,6 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde gelse de, zirvelere g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde gerileme e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de enflasyon daha \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) seyretti; son veriler %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u015fimdilik beklemede kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin Fed\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirmesi beklendi\u011finden, Haziran vadeli 1,0700 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 EUR\/USD \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (parite d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentiye g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir yol sunuyor. Bu stratejide en fazla kay\u0131p, opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131\/geni\u015f dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) da kritik. EUR\/USD\u2019de ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %6 civar\u0131 diplerden %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Paritenin bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete kadar yatay seyredece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (mevcut fiyattan uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put ve call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yazmak\/satmak) etkili olabilir. Bu pozisyon, parite belirli bir bantta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonun de\u011fer kayb\u0131) gelir sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te 1,18\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015fi kovalamaya temkinli yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, bug\u00fcn de temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fmeden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131. Euro aleyhine (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyon i\u00e7in ana risk, ABD verilerinde ani zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi. Bu durum Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir; paritede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket yarat\u0131p k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD yeniden 1,18\u2019i test etti: Nisan ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flarken Haziran h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatl\u0131. Ancak bug\u00fcn hik\u00e2ye indirim zamanlamas\u0131. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor; put\/strangle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ING: 1,17 riski. ABD zay\u0131flarsa sert yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44769\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}