EUR\/USD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1800 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve dokuz g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 kapsayan yeni bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi umutlar\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Tahran ile dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve temaslar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131nda \u201cdo\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere\u201d ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Trump, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Federal Reserve\/Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131 yeniden ele\u015ftirdi ve g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lmazsa onu Guvern\u00f6rler Kurulu\u2019ndaki koltu\u011fundan alabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Powell\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revi 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta bitiyor; Guvern\u00f6rler Kurulu \u00fcyeli\u011fi ise 2028\u2019e kadar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 66 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum de\u011fi\u015fimini izleyen g\u00f6sterge) s\u0131f\u0131r \u00e7izgisinin hafif alt\u0131na indi. Diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselirken zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,1825 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,1930\u2019a do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilirdi.<\/p>\n
Destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunabildi\u011fi seviye) 1,1770\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde, ard\u0131ndan 1,1720\u20131,1740 band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. 8 ve 12 Nisan dipleriyle ili\u015fkilendirilen 1,1650 civar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na ini\u015f, mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini zay\u0131flat\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli zay\u0131flamas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi ihtimaline verilen bir tepkiydi; bu, piyasan\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201crisk-on\u201d hareketidir (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limanlardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi). Ancak 2025 sonu ve 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda b\u00f6lgede s\u00fcren gerilim, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d rol\u00fcn\u00fc (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren para birimi) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan farkl\u0131 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, istikrar haberinde dolar satmak yerine, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k haberinde dolar al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki siyasi gerilim \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131p dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn odak, ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131na kayd\u0131. Mart 2026 ABD enflasyon verisi T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steren enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) %3,1\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek g\u00f6sterirken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin HICP\u2019si (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %2,5\u2019e geriledi. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na k\u0131yasla destekledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, 2025\u2019teki stratejilerin bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Mevcut daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur seviyesinde, 1,1000 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) uzun vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, Avrupa\u2019dan gelebilecek beklenmedik olumlu s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 hesapl\u0131 bir pozisyon olabilir. Bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel sunarken, riskin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 da belirler.<\/p>\n
Faiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential: iki b\u00f6lgenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki makas) art\u0131k ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki siyasi g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcye k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha belirleyici. ABD i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %3,8 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalarak \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde oran %6,5 seviyesinde. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, EUR\/USD vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon (futures short: paritenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanmay\u0131 hedefleyen i\u015flem) veya euro cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (forward: ileri tarihte belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) kullanmay\u0131 temel strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2025\u2019te kritik diren\u00e7 olan 1,1825 gibi teknik seviyeler, bug\u00fcn yak\u0131n hedef olmaktan uzak. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki man\u015fet odakl\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131k yerine, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen sert ekonomik verilere odaklanmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1800 \u00fcst\u00fcnde; dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri umudu dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, Trump\u2019\u0131n Fed-Powell \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Teknikte 1,1825 diren\u00e7; veri-faiz fark\u0131 art\u0131k belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44758\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}