2026 1. \u00e7eyrek (Q1) ba\u015f\u0131ndaki sonu\u00e7lar, S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Enerji maliyetleri y\u00fckselse ve ba\u015fka riskler olsa da gelir taraf\u0131ndaki \u201cbeklentiyi a\u015fma\u201d g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u015eu ana kadar S&P 500\u2019den 32 \u015firket bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu 32 \u015firkette toplam k\u00e2rlar (earnings) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %+30,5, gelirler (revenue\/ciro) %+13,2 artt\u0131. \u015eirketlerin %78,1\u2019i hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r (EPS: \u015firket k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n hisse say\u0131s\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f hali) tahminlerini, %84,4\u2019\u00fc gelir (ciro) tahminlerini ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn S&P 500 i\u00e7indeki piyasa de\u011ferinin %34\u2019\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen \u015firketler sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. K\u00e2rlar %+18,3, gelirler %+11,5 artt\u0131; \u015firketlerin %90\u2019\u0131 EPS tahminini, %80\u2019i gelir tahminini a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Q1 genelinde, a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler ve tahminler birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde S&P 500 k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n %+13,9, gelirlerin %+9,5 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %+14,1 k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve %+9,1 gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla k\u0131yaslan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
JPMorgan k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 %+12,6, gelirini %+10 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; net faiz geliri (bankan\u0131n verdi\u011fi kredilerden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz ile mevduata \u00f6dedi\u011fi faiz aras\u0131ndaki farktan do\u011fan gelir) %+9 y\u00fckselirken, kredi hacmi %+11 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Wells Fargo k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 %+14,6, gelirini %+6,4 art\u0131rd\u0131; net faiz geliri %+5, kredi hacmi %+11 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Zacks Investment Banks\/Managers end\u00fcstrisinde (yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 ve varl\u0131k y\u00f6neticileri grubu) k\u00e2rlar\u0131n %+19,7, gelirlerin %+10,5 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Q1 k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n %+26,7, gelirlerin %+9,8 artmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde art\u0131\u015f %+17,3 k\u00e2r ve %+7,4 gelir d\u00fczeyindeydi.<\/p>\n
Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 aya ili\u015fkin beklenen k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n (forward 12-month earnings: gelecek 12 ay i\u00e7in tahmini toplam k\u00e2r) %17,2\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor. Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in tahminler y\u00fckseldi; 8 sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in de tahminler yukar\u0131 revize edildi.<\/p>\n
Q1 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flarken, piyasan\u0131n temelinin son d\u00f6nemdeki duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n (sentiment: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n genel iyimserlik\/k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik alg\u0131s\u0131) ima etti\u011finden daha sa\u011flam oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hem k\u00e2r hem ciro tahminlerini a\u015fan \u015firket oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, s\u00fcren risklere ra\u011fmen \u015firketlerin finansal yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f piyasada y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin S&P 500 endeksinde call spread (al\u0131\u015f opsiyonu spread\u2019i: ayn\u0131 vadede biri daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, di\u011feri daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki call opsiyonuyla maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi, artan enerji maliyetlerini \u015fu ana kadar tolere ediyor. WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde; y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015f var. Mart 2026 i\u015fsizlik verisi oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede %3,6\u2019da yatay g\u00f6sterdi; bu da t\u00fcketici ve \u015firket talebinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, olumlu k\u00e2r e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
VIX (piyasa korkusu g\u00f6stergesi: S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) marttaki zirvelerinden gerileyerek bilan\u00e7o sezonu ba\u015flarken yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 seviyesine indi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften daha az endi\u015fe etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) ortam\u0131, nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak nakit tutarak put opsiyonu satma; prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri daha cazip hale getirebilir; \u00f6zellikle bilan\u00e7osu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firketlerde.<\/p>\n
Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131k ara \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; JPMorgan gibi kurumlar kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle dikkat \u00e7ekerken bankalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu k\u00e2r beklentilerini a\u015f\u0131yor. 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn performans\u0131 istikrarl\u0131yd\u0131 ancak \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fildi; bu nedenle mevcut ivme \u201ctelafi y\u00fckseli\u015fi\u201dne (catch-up trade: geride kalan sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sonradan h\u0131zla toparlanmas\u0131) i\u015faret edebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha fazla banka sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klarken finans ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, analistler jeopolitik tabloya ra\u011fmen 2026 y\u0131l geneli k\u00e2r tahminlerini pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu, \u015firketlerin temel e\u011filiminin \u00f6nceki varsay\u0131mlardan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steren kuvvetli bir sinyal. Bu nedenle, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f (short pozisyon: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) olu\u015ftururken temkinli olunmal\u0131; temel momentum belirgin \u015fekilde olumlu.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S&P 500 bilan\u00e7o sezonu s\u00fcrprizlerle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131: 32 \u015firkette k\u00e2r %+30,5, ciro %+13,2. Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; enerji risklerine ra\u011fmen tahmin a\u015f\u0131m\u0131 y\u00fcksek, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}