USD\/JPY, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda gerileyerek 158,70\u2013158,65 band\u0131na indi. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flama sonras\u0131, Sal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen haftal\u0131k dip seviyeye yak\u0131n kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks), ate\u015fkes umutlar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131n bitmeye yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla piyasan\u0131n verdi\u011fi tepki sonras\u0131 Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. M\u00fczakerelerin s\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisi, Dolara olan talebi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol, Sal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu durum enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015fesini azaltarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulama (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) ihtimaline dair beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Yen ayr\u0131ca, Japon yetkililerin para birimindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi (d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kuru etkileme) beklentisiyle destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Ancak Yen\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin riskler ve \u0130ran \u00e7evresinde deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Japonya, Orta Do\u011fu enerji ithalat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda aksama ihtimali, Japon ekonomisi \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, ge\u00e7en ay ula\u015f\u0131lan ve Temmuz 2025\u2019ten beri g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 160\u2019l\u0131 seviyelerin ortas\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ayd\u0131r benzer bir bantta hareket ediyor. \u00d6nemli ABD verisi g\u00fcndemde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 Dolar i\u00e7in olas\u0131 ana unsur olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu, 2024 ve 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen yak\u0131nsama e\u011filiminin tersine bir tablo. Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel seviyesi) Mart 2026 i\u00e7in beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %3,1 geldi. Bu, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Sonu\u00e7 olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi yeniden %4,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi %0,90 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Japonya ekonomisi daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verisi %0,2 daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik nedeniyle y\u00fckselen enerji ithalat maliyetleri ba\u015fl\u0131ca neden olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemleri (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Yeni savunmas\u0131z b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alman\u0131n (uzun pozisyon: kur y\u00fckselirse k\u00e2r eden i\u015flem) ana riski, Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale. Bu t\u00fcr bir ad\u0131m, kurda ani ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratabilir. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir m\u00fcdahale g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, parite bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 pip (pip: kurda standart k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; USD\/JPY\u2019de genelde 0,01) gerilemi\u015fti; ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi haftalar i\u00e7inde yeniden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, m\u00fcdahalenin risk oldu\u011funu fakat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel dinamikler (faiz fark\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enerji maliyeti gibi ana etkenler) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda etkisinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ancak m\u00fcdahaleden kaynakl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, yukar\u0131 potansiyel sunarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan y\u00f6ntemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 160,00 gibi psikolojik seviyede veya \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. B\u00f6ylece olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmada (direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) kazan\u00e7 hedeflenirken, yetkililer m\u00fcdahale ederse azami zarar \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, USD\/JPY Asya\u2019da 158,65\u2019e indi! Ate\u015fkes umudu ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken, faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor; Japonya m\u00fcdahalesi sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44737"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44737\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}