AUD\/USD, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,72 y\u00fckselerek 0,7173\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunsa da yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,80 geriledi; petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) azalmas\u0131 Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, sava\u015f\u0131n \u201cbitmeye yak\u0131n\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bloomberg, olas\u0131 iki haftal\u0131k bir ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131na dair s\u00f6ylentiler oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131; Trump ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in buna gerek kalmayabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Beige Book raporu, ekonomik faaliyetin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve istihdam\u0131n (i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131n) yatay seyretti\u011fini belirtti. Raporda ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, i\u015fe al\u0131m, fiyatlama ve sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (\u015firketlerin makine\/tesis gibi uzun vadeli harcamalar\u0131) \u00fczerinde etkili \u201cba\u015fl\u0131ca belirsizlik kayna\u011f\u0131\u201d oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beige Book, enflasyonu \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131; ancak Mart ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\u2014\u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) enflasyonu %4 oldu. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n 2026\u2019da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131n\u0131n) izleyece\u011fi yolu yak\u0131ndan takip etmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
St. Louis Fed\u2019den Alberto Musalem, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) yans\u0131yabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; altta yatan enflasyonun (genel e\u011filim) %3\u2019\u00fcn biraz alt\u0131nda ya da %3 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtti. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n Mart istihdam raporunun 20 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,3 ile gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar RBA\u2019n\u0131n (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) en az 54 baz puan (bp\u2014faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,01%) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da iki adet 25 bp\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bir sonraki toplant\u0131da art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %66 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik seviyelerde 0,7043 ve 0,7037 civar\u0131 destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunabildi\u011fi alan), RSI (14) (14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi\u2014momentumu \u00f6l\u00e7er) yakla\u015f\u0131k 66, 0,7440, 0,7685 ve 0,8015 civar\u0131 ise diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te ate\u015fkes umutlar\u0131n\u0131n AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7170\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyimserlik hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yapmamas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite o zamandan beri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde; bug\u00fcn 0,6750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda tablo farkl\u0131: Avustralya T\u00dcFE (CPI\u2014t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %3,1\u2019e gev\u015ferken RBA beklemede, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da %4,5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de Fed, daha \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor; son veriler bunu %3,4 g\u00f6steriyor ve bu durum dolara belirgin bir getiri (faiz) avantaj\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcren politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n belirleyici etkenin olmamas\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bast\u0131rd\u0131; AUD\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Bu ortam, prim erimesinden (zaman de\u011feri kayb\u0131ndan) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa strangle (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak aral\u0131kta kalma beklentisiyle prim toplama). Paritenin yak\u0131n vadede bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te izlenen 0,7040 civar\u0131ndaki destek seviyesi art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 tavan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip olan 0,6680 civar\u0131 bir sonraki kritik destek olarak takip edilmeli. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda, vadesiz de\u011fil ancak \u201czarar durdurma\u201d gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecek \u015fekilde, ucuz ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put\u2014mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma (hedge) arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7173\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f destek verdi. Fed belirsizlik uyard\u0131, enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131. RBA-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131 kuruyor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite bant ve opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44733\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}