Alt\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.800 dolara gerileyerek iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirsizlikte riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD ile \u0130ran, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine zaman tan\u0131mak i\u00e7in ate\u015fkesi iki hafta uzatmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde tansiyon y\u00fcksek. Bo\u011faz, sava\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi hafta \u00f6nce ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana fiilen kapal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (enerji maliyetlerinin genel fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi) endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Bu durum faiz indirimi beklentilerini azaltt\u0131 ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Alt\u0131n faiz getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in faizler y\u00fcksekken g\u00f6rece cazibesini kaybeder.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131na destek verebilir. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 Mart 2026\u2019ya kadar 18 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sahipleridir; rezervleri \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek (tek bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/d\u00f6vize ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmamak) ve para birimlerine g\u00fcveni desteklemek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n al\u0131rlar. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re 2022\u2019de 1.136 ton, yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde al\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131; bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor seviyedir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle (Treasuries: ABD devlet tahvilleri) ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder; hisse senetleri gibi riskli varl\u0131klara kar\u015f\u0131 da z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyredebilir. Fiyatlar\u0131 jeopolitik risk, resesyon korkusu (ekonomik daralma), faiz oranlar\u0131 ve dolar belirler; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alt\u0131n dolar cinsinden fiyatlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131 zay\u0131flarken alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.800 dolar seviyesine indi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ana g\u00fcndem petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f. Bu, enflasyon beklentilerini ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu tablo, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar) i\u00e7in jeopolitik risk ile para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131nda denge kurmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol\u00fcn (WTI: ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil fiyat\u0131 140 dolar\u0131 a\u015farken enflasyon beklentileri piyasa i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun haline geldi. Son T\u00dcFE verisi (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi) %3,8 ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu da \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak daha riskli olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar faizler y\u00fcksekken bask\u0131lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin her haber sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 yaratabilir ve y\u00f6n tahminini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk. Gerilimin artmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 yeniden h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu belirsizlikte, iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar: straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vade, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak).<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen istikrarl\u0131 talep de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bunun g\u00f6stergesi. 2022\u2019deki rekor al\u0131mlar, \u00fclkelerin dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle h\u0131zland\u0131. Bu, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in taban talep yarat\u0131r; bu nedenle sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe bahis yapan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) uzun vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebe kar\u015f\u0131 kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n hareketlerinde dolar belirleyicidir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyat dolar cinsinden. Faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor ve bu alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz bir etken. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) izlemeli. 107,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler alt\u0131n cephesinde: Fiyat 4.800 dolara \u00e7ekilerek iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fi bozdu. Petrol 140 dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nca enflasyon ve \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; \u00c7in talebi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44731\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}