USD\/JPY, ABD Dolar\u0131 genel olarak zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Parite son bir ayd\u0131r olu\u015fan bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Japon Yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda USD\/JPY 159,10 civar\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 art\u0131dayd\u0131 ve iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d (kamu otoritesinin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla girerek kuru etkilemesi) riski, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u201cGerekirse d\u00f6vizde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131mlar ataca\u011f\u0131z\u201d dedi. Yorumlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Yen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de\u011fer kazand\u0131, ancak jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ana belirleyici olmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki tansiyonun bir miktar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair i\u015faretler geldi; iki taraf da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini belirtti. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu hafta i\u00e7inde ikinci bir m\u00fczakere turu olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken petrol\u00fc de son zirvelerinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 98,10 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu seviye Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131nd\u0131. Pentagon\u2019un ek asker konu\u015fland\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bildirildi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim ise ham petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme, daha \u201cs\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131\u201d (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131) ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ABD\u2019de \u201cfaiz indirimi\u201d beklentilerini destekledi. \u00d6te yandan y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131 yolunu ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00 b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrindeki diren\u00e7, 2025\u2019te paritenin 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fi alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benziyor. Ana etken, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki belirgin \u201cfaiz fark\u0131\u201d (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) olmaya devam ediyor. Bu temel bask\u0131, resmi uyar\u0131lara ra\u011fmen y\u00f6n\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131 olma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda ani bir hareket ihtimali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. CFTC verilerine g\u00f6re (ABD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen kurumun verisi), Yen\u2019de \u201cspek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Yen\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n toplam\u0131) 2007\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu da otoritelerin m\u00fcdahalesi halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ters hareket (sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir \u201ckorunma\u201d (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) amac\u0131yla \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/JPY \u201cput opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun alt\u0131nda olan, kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; 2025\u2019te ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentileri yeni olu\u015furken, \u015fimdi tablo farkl\u0131. Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisi beklentiden y\u00fcksek geldi. Bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini daha ileri bir tarihe \u00f6teleyebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. BoJ ise temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durum \u201ccarry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 arama stratejisi) destekliyor ve dolar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc y\u0131prata y\u0131prata ilerleyen e\u011filim ile m\u00fcdahale riski aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen volatiliteyi\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) %10\u2019un \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu oran, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerine g\u00f6re belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek. Bu t\u00fcr bir ortam, \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerine (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) elveri\u015fli olabilir. Bu stratejiler, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik fakt\u00f6rler, 2025\u2019te Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen dinami\u011fe benzer \u015fekilde dolar\u0131 desteklerken Yeni zay\u0131flatmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131 (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6sterge fiyat\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat maliyetleri art\u0131yor; bu da para birimi \u00fczerinde ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, BoJ\u2019un ekonomiye zarar vermeden politikay\u0131 \u201cnormalle\u015ftirme\u201d \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 (ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gev\u015fek politikadan daha dengeli seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY dolardaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen 159,10\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Petrol ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Yeni bask\u0131larken 160,00\u2019da m\u00fcdahale riski tavan. Net k\u0131sa Yen pozisyonlar\u0131 sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44719\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}