MUFG, gerilimin azalmas\u0131 senaryosunda G\u00fcney Kore wonunun (KRW) daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyor. Banka, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi halinde KRW\u2019nin bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini de belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019ye destek unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrmekte olan **yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) ve teknoloji d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc**ne ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve enerji arz\u0131nda olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma risklerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Kore Ulusal Emeklilik Servisi (NPS), d\u00f6viz riskinden korunmada (kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) uzun s\u00fcredir uygulanan %15\u2019lik \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131yor. %15 seviyesi bundan b\u00f6yle \u201c\u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u201d de\u011fil, **baz oran** olarak kullan\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
NPS, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde daha fazla esneklik kazanmay\u0131 hedefliyor. **D\u00f6viz riskinden korunma (FX hedging)**, s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ba\u015fvurulan bir ara\u00e7 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m politikas\u0131n\u0131n standart par\u00e7as\u0131 haline gelecek.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc AI ve teknoloji d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rla, G\u00fcney Kore wonunda uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar (kurun de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Son veriler de bunu destekliyor: G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) ihracat\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131; bu da k\u00fcresel talebin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, KRW\u2019nin di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
NPS\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131sal politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, won i\u00e7in olumlu bir di\u011fer unsur. %15\u2019lik kur riskinden korunma oran\u0131n\u0131n \u201ctavan\u201d yerine \u201cbaz\u201d haline gelmesiyle NPS\u2019nin KRW\u2019ye daha d\u00fczenli talep yaratmas\u0131 beklenebilir. NPS\u2019nin 2025 sonu itibar\u0131yla 850 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde varl\u0131k y\u00f6netti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu ad\u0131m orta vadede yerel para birimi i\u00e7in anlaml\u0131 ve daha istikrarl\u0131 bir talep yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklik zamanlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; 2025\u2019te piyasa stresi d\u00f6nemlerinde USD\/KRW paritesi (1 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 won etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) 1400 seviyesini birka\u00e7 kez test etmi\u015fti. Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, won lehine bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda vadeli **USD\/KRW sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131)** veya **KRW al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131)** de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Temel senaryo k\u00fcresel gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131 olsa da, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f riski izlenmeli. Brent petrol\u00fc \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu durum, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 G\u00fcney Kore i\u00e7in olumsuz etki yaratabilir. Jeopolitik riskin aniden y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131, won lehine pozisyonlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 **kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131ndan uzak (out-of-the-money)** put opsiyonlar\u0131yla (mevcut seviyeye g\u00f6re \u201czararda\u201d olan, daha ucuz koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon) korumak faydal\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz won rallisi kap\u0131da m\u0131? MUFG, gerilim azal\u0131rsa KRW\u2019nin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, petrol \u015foku uzarsa bask\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. AI\/\u00e7ip ihracat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; NPS hedging tavan\u0131n\u0131 baz yap\u0131p talebi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44718\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}