\u00c7in\u2019in mart ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, ihracat\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 13 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indirdi. Mevsimsel etkiler ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fcksek baz etkisi (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek seviye) ihracat\u0131 bask\u0131larken, enerji ve ham madde fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ithalat\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 baz\u0131nda (verilerin dolar cinsinden \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesi), ihracat y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5 artt\u0131 (Bloomberg tahmini: %8,6; \u015fubat: %39,6). \u0130thalat y\u0131ll\u0131k %27,8 y\u00fckseldi (Bloomberg tahmini: %13,9; \u015fubat: %13,8).<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 \u015fubattaki 90,98 milyar ABD dolar\u0131ndan 51,13 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na geriledi. \u0130thalattaki art\u0131\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckselen k\u00fcresel enerji ve ham madde fiyatlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) ve bilgisayar ithalat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, bak\u0131r ve demir al\u0131mlar\u0131 da istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131. Miktar baz\u0131nda (fiyattan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, ton\/varil gibi ger\u00e7ek hacim), k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve rafine petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ithalat\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n mart\u0131na g\u00f6re artt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ham petrol ve LPG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f petrol gaz\u0131) ithalat\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintileri (tedarikte aksama) ve alternatif enerjiye y\u00f6nelimle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak geriledi.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde (1\u00c726), ihracat y\u0131ll\u0131k %14,7, ithalat %22,7 artt\u0131. K\u00fcm\u00fclatif (birikimli) d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 1\u00c726\u2019da 264,33 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 oldu; 1\u00c725\u2019te 271,09 milyar ABD dolar\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart verileri, \u00c7in yuan\u0131n\u0131n (CNY) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bask\u0131 (olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2r) g\u00f6rebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinde \u00f6nemli bir kaynak olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 13 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda USD\/CNH paritesinin (ABD dolar\u0131\/deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasa yuan\u0131; CNH, \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) 7,30 seviyesini bir\u00e7ok kez test etti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, yatay veya hafif zay\u0131f yuan senaryosunda fayda sa\u011flayabilecek stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/CNH \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n almak.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskin tetikledi\u011fi daha y\u00fcksek ithalat maliyetleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan tema. Piyasalarda bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) son bir ay boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n veya enerji borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF; bir endeksi\/varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleyen fon) \u00fczerindeki al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bak\u0131r gibi sanayi emtialar\u0131na (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan ham madde) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. \u00c7in\u2019in ithalat verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar\u0131, Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019nda bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu temel fiziki talep, baz metal vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (bak\u0131r, al\u00fcminyum gibi metaller) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) korunmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f ihracat ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, genel hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7 pazara odakl\u0131 teknoloji ve malzeme sekt\u00f6rleri destek g\u00f6rebilirken, ihracata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u015firketler geride kalabilir. Bu e\u011filim, Hang Seng Endeksi\u2019nin bu ay %4 d\u00fc\u015fmesinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin FTSE China A50 endeksi \u00fczerinde uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanma) pozisyonu.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in\u2019in mart d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde alarm: \u0130hracat s\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131f, ithalat enerji\/emtia fiyatlar\u0131yla sert artt\u0131; fazla 13 ay\u0131n dibinde. Yuan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; enerji, bak\u0131r ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44717\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}