WTI, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 89,10 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yatay seyretti; \u00f6nceki seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 dolar ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemi\u015fti. Fiyatlar 89 dolar \u00e7evresinde tutunurken piyasalar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ile ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri tartt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Washington Post, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya binlerce ek asker g\u00f6ndermeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Habere g\u00f6re bu ad\u0131m, Tahran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rma ve bir anla\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131nda bitebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve mevcut iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na gerek g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini belirtti. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde olumlu bir a\u00e7\u0131klama gelebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, Pakistanl\u0131 bir heyetin Washington\u2019dan bir mesajla Tahran\u2019a gitti\u011fini duyurdu. Haberlere g\u00f6re ate\u015fkes s\u00fcresi dolmadan, ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler bu hafta i\u00e7inde yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki ablukas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 deniz ticaretini k\u0131s\u0131tlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. CENTCOM (ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131) komutan\u0131, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u0130ran\u2019a gidi\u015f-geli\u015f deniz yoluyla ekonomik ticareti durdurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k K\u00f6rfez ve Umman Denizi \u00fczerinden ithalat ve ihracat\u0131 engelleyebilecekleri uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. IMF (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel resesyonu (d\u00fcnya genelinde ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme) tetikleyebilece\u011fini belirtti. IEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) ise normal petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n 60 ila 150 g\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol piyasas\u0131, arz fazlas\u0131 (piyasaya ihtiyac\u0131n \u00fczerinde petrol gelmesi) endi\u015feleri ile G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki yeni jeopolitik riskler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son imalat verileri beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda enerji talebinin (t\u00fcketim ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n) zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo fiyatlarda net bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar 89 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgalanm\u0131\u015f, bir yanda ABD\u2019nin asker y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131 haberleri, di\u011fer yanda son dakika diplomasi umudu etkili olmu\u015ftu. Piyasa, m\u00fczakerelerden net bir sinyal gelene kadar y\u00f6n se\u00e7ememi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr belirsizlikte, fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan (opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almakt\u0131r. Bu pozisyon, vade bitmeden petrol fiyat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket ederse k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7ebilir.<\/p>\n
CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX), beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmd\u00fcr; 38\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu art\u0131\u015f, EIA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (depolardaki petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden fazla y\u00fckselmesi) raporuna ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasan\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada haftal\u0131k arz verilerinden \u00e7ok jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klara odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer bu kilitlenmenin s\u00fcrece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, yatay seyirden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen bir strateji de g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u201cIron condor\u201d, hem al\u0131m spreadi hem sat\u0131m spreadi sat\u0131larak kurulan bir opsiyon yap\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Spread (fark pozisyonu), farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip opsiyonlar\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir pozisyon, petrol fiyat\u0131 belirli bir bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kazand\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefler; yani jeopolitik endi\u015feler ile zay\u0131f ekonomik verilerin k\u0131sa vadede birbirini dengeleyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025 krizine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, WTI birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca 85-92 dolar band\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan diplomatik ilerleme ile 78 dolara do\u011fru sert gerilemi\u015fti. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7lerden birinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden sinyalleri izlemesi gerekir. Takip edilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca tetikleyiciler OPEC+ \u00fcretim toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon verileri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde denge sava\u015f\u0131: WTI 89 dolarda tutunuyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme sinyalleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski fiyat\u0131 kilitliyor; OVX y\u00fckseliyor. OPEC+ ve ABD enflasyonu izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44713\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}