Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n **g\u00fcvenli liman** (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) deste\u011fi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ancak petrol arz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131. **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131** kapand\u0131 ve bu durum **fiziki petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131** (ger\u00e7ek tanker teslimatlar\u0131n\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RaboResearch, sava\u015f bu ay bitse bile Bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n a\u011fustos sonuna do\u011fru ancak sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin %80\u2019ine toparlanabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu, enflasyon riskinin s\u00fcrece\u011fine ve enerji talebinde bozulma ya\u015fanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f **d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131** (ithalat\u0131n pahalan\u0131p \u00fclke gelirinin reel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi) bozabilir ve enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itebilir. Avrupa i\u00e7inde etkilenme, \u00fclkelerin **enerji karmas\u0131**na (petrol, gaz, n\u00fckleer, yenilenebilir paylar\u0131) g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu farklar son haftalarda Avrupa **tahvil getirilerine** (devlet tahvillerinin faiz\/geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131) yans\u0131d\u0131. Makale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rlan\u0131p bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasalarda k\u0131smi sakinlik olsa da fiziki petrol arz\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ger\u00e7ek. Yaz boyunca petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n zor olmas\u0131n\u0131, bu nedenle fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek ve oynak kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ilave fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 **Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu** d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. (Call opsiyonu: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; **vadeli i\u015flem**: ileri tarihte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme.) Brent \u015fu s\u0131ralar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Bu arz \u015foku enflasyonu do\u011frudan besliyor ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Mart 2026 enflasyonunun %6\u2019ya yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin **faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn** yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Vadeli piyasalar \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na pozisyon almak (faiz vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 olarak Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere, bu krizi **d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengelerinin bozulmas\u0131** \u00fczerinden daha sert hissedecek. Dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcvenli liman etkisi azalsa da temel ekonomik zarar, Euro ve Sterlin\u2019in dolara kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede **EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu** de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Put opsiyonu: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Avrupa i\u00e7inde ekonomik y\u00fck e\u015fit da\u011f\u0131lmayacak; bu durum devlet tahvili piyasas\u0131nda zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130talya ve Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki **fark (spread)** 200 **baz puan\u0131n** (1 baz puan = %0,01) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak y\u0131llar\u0131n en geni\u015f seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131; bu, ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu nedenle **\u0130talyan tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon** al\u0131p **Alman Bund vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon** almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. (K\u0131sa pozisyon: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f; uzun pozisyon: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131\u015f.)<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar sakinle\u015fse de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de arz \u015foku s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: fiziki petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaz boyu k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131, Brent 115$. Enflasyon y\u00fcksek kalabilir; Euro\/Sterlin bask\u0131da, tahvil spreadleri a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor, opsiyon hedgeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44708\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}