G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 80 dolar civar\u0131nda, son bir ay\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise 98,10 seviyesinde ve son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi sekizinci g\u00fcne uzasa da, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri izlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) k\u0131sa vadede faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Fed bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n etkilerini, \u00f6zellikle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanabilecek enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) riskini de\u011ferlendirecek. Petrol son zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi beklentilerini yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ancak enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirsiz.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, martta 61 dolar civar\u0131nda dip yapt\u0131ktan sonra yukar\u0131 e\u011fimli paralel kanal i\u00e7inde hareket ediyor; yani hem tepeler hem de dipler kademeli olarak y\u00fckseliyor. Fiyat, 100 ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli say\u0131da mumun ortalama fiyat\u0131) tekrar \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 test ediyor. Bu b\u00f6lgede 85 dolar civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fiyat 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 77 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalamazsa, 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 73 dolar b\u00f6lgesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. RSI (14) 68,38 seviyesinde; RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. MACD (Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n Yak\u0131nsama\/Uzakla\u015fmas\u0131: iki ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farkla momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er) sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ADX 20,66; ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) trendin \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7te oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131 olan 80 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 test ederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in kritik bir e\u015fik olu\u015fuyor. RSI\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131ma yakla\u015fmas\u0131, sekiz g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ivme kaybedebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu diren\u00e7 \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da geri \u00e7ekilme senaryosunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 (belli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc momentum (fiyat\u0131n hareket h\u0131z\u0131) zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n 98,10 civar\u0131nda alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n dibine gerilemesi, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek. Piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz indirimi beklentisinin artmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi yapmayan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi) daha cazip h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerginlik, fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini koruyabilir; bu da y\u00fcksek miktarda k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 77 dolar destek seviyesine olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131mlar\u0131n artmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin arkas\u0131nda sanayi talebi (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan fiziksel talep) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc alt\u0131ndan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki raporlara g\u00f6re 2025\u2019te sanayi t\u00fcketimi yeni bir rekor k\u0131rd\u0131; bunun ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi ve elektrikli ara\u00e7 sekt\u00f6rleri oldu. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel talep, k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclse bile uzun vadeli e\u011filimin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 77 ve 85 dolar seviyeleri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Kanal\u0131n \u00fcst direnci a\u015f\u0131lamazsa fiyat\u0131n 200 periyotluk hareketli ortalama olan 77 dolar civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilmesi ve burada yeni bir giri\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma gelirse, bir sonraki hedef 85 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 80 dolarda ayl\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n; zay\u0131f DXY ve faiz indirimi beklentisi destekliyor. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu riskiyle y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131: 77 destek, 85 diren\u00e7. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131ma yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44707\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}