Japon yeni hafif de\u011fer kaybetti; %0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana hareket etti\u011fi bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n orta seviyeleri etraf\u0131nda dar bir aral\u0131kta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa havas\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki) son iyile\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen di\u011fer G10 para birimlerine k\u0131yasla zay\u0131f kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon (kur i\u00e7in al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) fiyatlamas\u0131, risk tersine d\u00f6nmeleri (risk reversal: ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k fark\u0131; piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n beklentisi) taraf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermiyor. Ancak yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in pozisyon alma) i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek prim (opsiyon bedeli) \u00f6deniyor. Bu konumlanma, yenin benzer para birimlerine yeti\u015fmesi halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BOJ) da \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; 28 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201cetkinlik riski\u201dnin (toplant\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yen, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri toparlan\u0131rken bile belirgin \u015fekilde geride kal\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 ve Euro bu y\u0131l s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydederken, yen yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 geriledi; USD\/JPY kuru 154 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu zay\u0131f performans, olas\u0131 sert bir ters harekete zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yenin aniden de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in daha fazla prim \u00f6dedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fi ve yenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cyeti\u015fme\u201d (catch-up) hareketi yapabilece\u011fi beklentisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu konumlanma, yakla\u015fan para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tansiyonu art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
28 Nisan\u2019daki BOJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin en \u00f6nemli risk ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) son d\u00f6nemde %2,6 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve bankan\u0131n hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, yetkililerin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeyi (policy normalization: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikadan daha s\u0131k\u0131\/normal seviyelere ge\u00e7i\u015f) h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fine dair beklentileri art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu, 2024\u2019teki \u00f6nemli politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin ard\u0131ndan 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok temkinli duru\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftada t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (derivatives: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak daha makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yen al\u0131m (JPY call) opsiyonu almak ya da alternatif olarak USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon), nisan sonu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra vadesi dolacak \u015fekilde tercih edilirse, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimi) bir s\u00fcrprizden yararlanmak i\u00e7in kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck primle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon etkisi) bir yol sunabilir. Bu strateji, riski \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 (defined-risk: en fazla \u00f6denecek primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) tutarak artan toplant\u0131 riskinden do\u011fabilecek olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: USD\/JPY 154 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Opsiyonlarda risk reversal sakin ama JPY g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 hedge primi y\u00fckseldi. 28 Nisan BOJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz, sert catch-up rallisi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44703"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44703\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}