USD\/CHF \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7820 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,04 y\u00fckseldi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir ayl\u0131k dip seviye olan 0,7790\u2019a yak\u0131n kald\u0131. <\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair beklentilerin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltmas\u0131yla zay\u0131f seyretti. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,20 civar\u0131nda tutunurken, yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 98,00\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti.
\n(DXY: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks. G\u00fcvenli liman: Belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi daha az riskli varl\u0131k.) <\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Fox Business\u2019a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimin sona yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. The New York Post\u2019a ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde Pakistan\u2019da yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini belirtti. <\/p>\n
JD Vance, Pakistan dahil \u00e7e\u015fitli diplomatik kanallardan temaslar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klara talebi azaltt\u0131.
\n(Risk i\u015ftah\u0131: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi.) <\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon verileri de dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI) Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 artt\u0131; beklenti %1,2 idi. \u00c7ekirdek PPI (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %0,1 y\u00fckseldi.
\n(PPI: \u00dcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er. \u00c7ekirdek: Ge\u00e7ici dalgalanma yaratan kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veri.) <\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretici enflasyonu %4 olurken beklenti %4,6 seviyesindeydi. Bunun ard\u0131ndan piyasalar, bu y\u0131l ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltt\u0131 ve daha \u201cgev\u015fek\u201d bir duru\u015f ihtimalini fiyatlad\u0131.
\n(Gev\u015fek\/uyumlu duru\u015f: Faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutma veya art\u0131rmama e\u011filimi.) <\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemdeki piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2025\u2019te USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,7800\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesinde jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve beklenenden zay\u0131f \u00fcretici enflasyonu etkili olmu\u015f, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rma s\u00fcrecini) sonland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti.
\n(S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma: Enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rma veya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma.) <\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn ise tablo farkl\u0131 ve yeni f\u0131rsatlar do\u011furuyor. Mart 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI) %3,1 ile %2,9\u2019luk beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2025 ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.
\n(CPI: T\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er.) <\/p>\n
Bu nedenle vadeli piyasalarda (futures: gelecekte belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir beklenti \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. CME FedWatch Tool verilerine g\u00f6re piyasa, temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in bir kez daha faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.
\n(\u015eahin: Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yana, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha sert duru\u015f. CME FedWatch Tool: Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131ndan Fed faiz beklentisini \u00e7\u0131karan g\u00f6sterge.) <\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu ile k\u00fcresel belirsizlik bir aradayken, USD\/CHF opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseldi ve son d\u00f6nemde \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.
\n(Opsiyon: Belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131.) <\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu stratejiler, fiyat\u0131n sert hareketinden y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.
\n(Straddle: Ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak. Strangle: Ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak.) <\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem yapmak isteyenler i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in sert duru\u015fu, 2025\u2019in aksine dolar i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 45-60 g\u00fcn vadeli, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money)\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.
\n(Out-of-the-money: Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde\/alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f opsiyon. Call: Fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m opsiyonu.) <\/p>\n
Parite \u015fu anda 0,8950 civar\u0131nda ise, bu seviye \u00f6nemli bir teknik d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak izlenebilir. 2023 verilerine g\u00f6re bu b\u00f6lge g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7ti; bu nedenle yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda hareket h\u0131zlanabilir. Riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cbull call spread\u201d, y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonu al\u0131rken riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yol sunar.
\n(Teknik seviye\/pivot: Grafikte fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebildi\u011fi kritik b\u00f6lge. Diren\u00e7: Y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorlayan seviye. Spread: Birden fazla opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131. Bull call spread: Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF 0,7820\u2019de; ABD-\u0130ran tansiyonu ve zay\u0131f PPI dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Ancak y\u00fcksek CPI ve %65 Temmuz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor: Straddle\/strangle veya OTM call, bull spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44702\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}