ABD\u2019de NAHB Konut Piyasas\u0131 Endeksi nisan ay\u0131nda 34 oldu. Bu seviye, 37 olan beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
NAHB konut piyasas\u0131 endeksinin 34 gelerek 37 beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131, m\u00fcteahhitlerin (konut \u00fcreticilerinin) g\u00fcveninin tahminimizden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bozuldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu endeks, konut in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki beklentileri \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge. Veriler, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla (b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran olumsuz ko\u015fullarla) kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, sadece konutta de\u011fil, genel ekonomide de zay\u0131flama riski oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 30 y\u0131l vadeli konut kredisi faizleri y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 7%\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda kalarak y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Bu durum, \u201cal\u0131nabilirlik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201dna (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n geliriyle konut kredisi taksitini kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131na) neden oluyor. Bu bask\u0131, m\u00fcteahhitlerin daha az iyimser olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Benzer bir tablo, ge\u00e7en ay beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen \u201ckonut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131\u201d (yap\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flanan yeni konut say\u0131s\u0131) verisinde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Veriler, y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetlerini (kredi faizi ve bor\u00e7lanma giderleri) telafi edecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir talep olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda daha temkinli (defansif) pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Konut \u00fcreticisi hisselerini izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: bir endeksi\/temay\u0131 takip eden, borsada al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) olan ITB veya XHB \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) almak, olumsuz duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan fiyatlaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Bunu, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 ekonomik yava\u015flama i\u00e7in \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge\u201d (ekonomideki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmleri \u00f6nceden i\u015faret eden veri) olarak da okuyup, S&P 500 \u00fczerinde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201chedge\u201d (riskten korunma) ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
Rapor, faiz beklentileri ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli. Ekonominin kritik bir alan\u0131nda yava\u015flama sinyali varken Fed\u2019in ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rma) ihtimali azal\u0131r. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemine y\u00f6nelik faiz indirimi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. Bu senaryoda SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR futures: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7 verme faizine dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlerden fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda ise bu haber, kereste gibi in\u015faat malzemeleri i\u00e7in olumsuz (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 e\u011filimli) bir sinyal. Kereste vadeli i\u015flemleri 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 10%\u2019dan fazla geriledi; bu rapor da daha zay\u0131f talep beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Kereste vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) almak veya malzeme sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonu almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir ad\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
2024\u2019te faizlerin h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesinin tetikledi\u011fi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli konut zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n ne kadar hassasla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde konut ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin bi\u00e7imde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son veri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sekt\u00f6rde benzer dalgal\u0131 bir seyrin g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan zay\u0131fl\u0131k: ABD\u2019de NAHB Konut Endeksi nisanda 34\u2019te kalarak 37 beklentisini ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Y\u00fcksek mortgage faizleri al\u0131nabilirli\u011fi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; konut \u00fcreticileri, hisse\/emtia ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde bask\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44699\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}