Standard Chartered, Japonya g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc revize etti. Banka, 2026 GSYH (bir \u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %0,7\u2019ye indirdi; T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) tahminini ise %2,0\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Gerek\u00e7e olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve zay\u0131f Japon yeni nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u201cd\u0131\u015f ticaret \u015fartlar\u0131 \u015foku\u201dnu g\u00f6sterdi (ithalat\u0131n pahalanmas\u0131 ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi).<\/p>\n
Banka, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bunu, petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar\/varil seviyesine yerle\u015fmesi ve para birimi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketimi olumsuz etkilemesiyle ili\u015fkilendirdi.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat verileri zay\u0131f bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ederken, martta g\u00fcven (beklentiler) geriledi. Banka, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i ivmeyi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Standard Chartered, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131nda ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlar) 2026\u2019n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar erteleyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, mevcut enflasyonun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 arz etkilerinden (enerji ve ithal girdi maliyetleri gibi) beslendi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasada BoJ\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe yakla\u015ft\u0131. Temmuza kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 27 baz puan (faizde y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131rken, eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in buna ek 7 baz puan fiyatland\u0131; nisan ay\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri ise azald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da stagflasyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) riskinin zay\u0131f yen ve 100 dolar\/varil petrol ortam\u0131yla belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve ekonomiyi yava\u015flat\u0131yor. Enflasyonun kayna\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f arz sorunlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, BoJ\u2019nin en az \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yen zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; USD\/JPY bu ay 162 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, 2025\u2019teki ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Son veriler temkinli tabloyu destekliyor: Mart Tankan anketinde (BoJ\u2019nin i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven anketi) b\u00fcy\u00fck imalat\u00e7\u0131lar endeksi +8\u2019e geriledi; y\u00fcksek ithalat maliyetleri nedeniyle beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu ortam, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomiyi daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumu (hemen ad\u0131m atmay\u0131p verileri izleme) beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in, Japonya ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; bu, y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimalinden yararlan\u0131rken zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f yenin ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 desteklemesi ile zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebin di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rleri bask\u0131lamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki, Nikkei 225 i\u00e7in zor bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik, sert dalgalanma (oynakl\u0131k) riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin Nikkei 225 \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) stratejisi, dalgal\u0131 piyasada daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Japonya\u2019da stagflasyon alarm\u0131: Standard Chartered 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %0,7\u2019ye \u00e7ekti, T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %2,0\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Zay\u0131f yen ve 100$\/varil petrol \u015foku BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 2026 3\u00c7\u2019ye itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44692"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44692\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}