K\u00fcresel dengesizlikler b\u00fcy\u00fcrken ve IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131 sistem geneline yay\u0131lan risklere i\u015faret ederken, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n (USD) d\u00fcnyadaki temel rol\u00fc sorgulan\u0131yor. Payla\u015f\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re, ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n d\u00fcnya genelindeki kullan\u0131m pay\u0131 zamanla gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, dolar\u0131n d\u00f6viz (FX: farkl\u0131 para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) i\u015flemlerindeki pay\u0131n\u0131, d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki pay\u0131n\u0131 ve tahvil ile hisse senedi ihra\u00e7lar\u0131nda (\u015firketlerin\/kurumlar\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma ya da sermaye toplamak i\u00e7in piyasaya menkul k\u0131ymet \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131) kullan\u0131lan para birimi olma konumunu azaltabilir. Buna ra\u011fmen, ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir para biriminin k\u00fcresel finans sisteminde dolar\u0131n merkez\u00ee yerini tamamen alabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7te olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in yuan\u0131 (CNY), sermaye kontrolleri (\u00fclkeye giren-\u00e7\u0131kan para hareketlerine getirilen s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar) ve rekabet\u00e7i tutmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck politikalar (kurun de\u011ferini ihracat lehine bask\u0131layan uygulamalar) nedeniyle alternatif olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Euro ise, ancak \u00e7ok daha b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmi\u015f bir ekonomik blokun ortak paras\u0131 h\u00e2line gelirse tam bir rakip say\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Dolar h\u00e2l\u00e2 temel para birimi, ancak uzun vadeli zemininin yava\u015f yava\u015f de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. IMF\u2019nin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri, dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezervlerdeki pay\u0131n\u0131n %57,8\u2019e hafif geriledi\u011fini ve 2025 boyunca izlenen kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k\/para) \u00f6zelli\u011finin \u015fimdilik korundu\u011fu; ancak alttaki e\u011filimin izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro hen\u00fcz \u201ctaht\u0131 devralacak\u201d inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir aday de\u011fil. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7inde enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131; Almanya\u2019da son verinin %1,9 iken \u0130talya\u2019da %3,4 olmas\u0131, blo\u011fun ekonomik olarak par\u00e7al\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu yap\u0131sal sorun, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir euro y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan opsiyon stratejilerinin (opsiyon: belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) erken olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer \u015fekilde \u00c7in yuan\u0131, sermaye kontrolleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Bu durum, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pekin\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi para ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 fon giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131) daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. SWIFT (uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme mesajla\u015fma a\u011f\u0131) \u00fczerinden k\u00fcresel \u00f6demelerde yuan\u0131n pay\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay %5,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselse de, dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n konumuna meydan okumak i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck. Bu nedenle yuan, \u015fimdilik k\u00fcresel de\u011fil b\u00f6lgesel bir hik\u00e2ye.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni (JPY) ve \u0130ngiliz sterlininin (GBP) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan rol\u00fcn\u00fcn kademeli bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve bol likidite yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) uzakla\u015famamas\u0131, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha yukar\u0131da kalan al\u0131m opsiyonu; prim daha ucuz olur ama ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi daha zordur) satarak dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcren zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, uzun vadeli soru i\u015faretlerine ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n liderli\u011finin s\u00fcrmesine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor. EUR\/USD gibi ana paritelerdeki \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; bu da ani \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) amac\u0131yla daha ucuz opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131 f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir. Piyasa, y\u00fczeyin alt\u0131nda biriken sistem risklerini (t\u00fcm piyasay\u0131 etkileyebilecek yayg\u0131n riskler) yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00fcresel riskler artarken \u201cdolar\u0131n sonu mu?\u201d sorusu yeniden masada: ABD pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e USD rezerv ve i\u015flemlerde geriliyor. Euro k\u0131r\u0131lgan, yuan kontroll\u00fc; liderlik s\u00fcrse de hedge opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44684\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}