ABD Dolar\u0131, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri verdi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) bu ay %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,1\u2019e indi. Bu seviye, Operation Epic Fury ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 97,6\u2019ya yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
DXY, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla gelen y\u00fckseli\u015finin %80\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131 geri b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu geri \u00e7ekilme; hisse senetlerinin (borsadaki \u015firket paylar\u0131) diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 ve Brent petrol\u00fcn (uluslararas\u0131 petrol g\u00f6stergesi) son bir haftada \u00e7o\u011funlukla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n 8 Nisan\u2019daki ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkesi sonras\u0131 diplomatik sonu\u00e7 ihtimalini fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130slamabad\u2019daki ilk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonu\u00e7 vermedi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) ablukaya almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan AB \u00fclkeleri ve \u00c7in, diplomasi i\u00e7in \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. En k\u00f6t\u00fc petrol \u015foku senaryosunun k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bitmi\u015f olmasa da.<\/p>\n
Haberde ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefiklerinin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u201ctopyek\u00fbn sava\u015f\u201da (geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcreli sava\u015f) ta\u015f\u0131yacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131 desteklemedi\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi de not ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir senaryo bug\u00fcn G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde artan ABD-\u00c7in gerilimiyle tekrar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) (piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma\/korku g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en hafta 28\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, ancak b\u00f6lgesel ortaklar\u0131n diplomatik kanallara \u00f6ncelik vermesiyle 19\u2019un alt\u0131na \u00e7ekildi. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n \u201cen k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo\u201d ihtimalini ge\u00e7mi\u015f on y\u0131llara k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u0131\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) giderek daha k\u0131sa vadeli bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY paritesi (dolar\/yen kuru) ilk deniz g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6sterisiyle 145\u2019e geriledi, ancak ASEAN\u2019\u0131n (G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00fclkeleri b\u00f6lgesel birli\u011fi) ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in acil G20 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 151\u2019e toparland\u0131. Bu tablo, dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma eksikli\u011finden de\u011fil, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koordineli uluslararas\u0131 tepkinin (ortak diplomatik bask\u0131) dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131ndan etkilendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer \u015fekilde petrol piyasas\u0131 da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ABD tipi ham petrol\u00fcn ileri tarihli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ard\u0131ndan OPEC+\u2019\u0131n (OPEC ve ortak \u00fcreticiler grubu) yerel bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131k halinde \u00fcretimi k\u0131smaya i\u015faret etmemesiyle 88 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon pani\u011fini (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcrece\u011fi korkusu) azalt\u0131r; bu da merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na zorlayacak bask\u0131y\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren zemini zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini satmay\u0131, \u00f6zellikle diplomasiyi savunan \u00fclkelerin para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. DXY\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan al\u0131m opsiyonu; prim geliri hedeflenir) veya ilk s\u0131\u00e7rama sonras\u0131 volatilite \u00fczerine \u201cput\u201d almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon; dalgalanman\u0131n gerilemesi beklentisiyle) uygulanabilir stratejiler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Desen, dolardaki bu ani tepkisel y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu durum 2003 Irak i\u015fgali gibi koalisyon destekli (\u00e7ok say\u0131da m\u00fcttefikin sahada ve politik olarak destek verdi\u011fi) operasyonlarda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz uzun s\u00fcreli belirsizlik ve kal\u0131c\u0131 dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcnden belirgin \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda (g\u00fcc\u00fcn tek merkezde toplanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, birden fazla b\u00fcy\u00fck akt\u00f6r\u00fcn etkili oldu\u011fu yap\u0131), geni\u015f m\u00fcttefik deste\u011fi olmayan ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n piyasada uzun s\u00fcreli bozulma yaratma ihtimali daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, sert ama k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d hareketlerini daha s\u0131k \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok bitti mi? Dolar, \u0130ran gerilimiyle kazand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019ini geri verdi: DXY 98,1\u2019e indi. Borsalar diren\u00e7li, petrol 100$ alt\u0131. Piyasalar diplomasiyi fiyatl\u0131yor; riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f k\u0131sa, volatilite s\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44678\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}