ABD\u2019de MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association: ipotek kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131 birli\u011fi) verisine g\u00f6re ipotek (konut kredisi) ba\u015fvurular\u0131 10 Nisan\u2019da biten haftada %1,8 artt\u0131. \u00d6nceki veri %-0,8 idi.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fcncelleme, d\u00f6nem boyunca toplam konut kredisi talebinde art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bir \u00f6nceki haftadaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 10 Nisan civar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ba\u015fvuru art\u0131\u015f\u0131, konut piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in erken ve kritik bir sinyaldi. Bu %1,8\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f, 30 y\u0131l vadeli sabit faizli konut kredisi oran\u0131 (30-year fixed mortgage rate: 30 y\u0131l boyunca faizi de\u011fi\u015fmeyen kredi faizi) aylar sonra ilk kez k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %6,5\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Bu, bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011fi \u201cpiyasan\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201dna erken bir i\u015faretti.<\/p>\n
Bu verinin, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed: Federal Reserve) 2025\u2019in kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz patikas\u0131 beklentilerini h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Piyasa, beklenen faiz indirimlerinden birini fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate: teminatl\u0131 gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi) ve Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: gelecekteki bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ABD tahvil faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynayan pozisyonlar\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda (10-year note futures \/ ZN: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli kontrat\u0131) uzun pozisyon (long: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon) alanlar\u2014hemen bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu noktada, konut in\u015faat\u0131 \u015firketlerine odaklanan ETF\u2019lerde (Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu: hisse gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) ITB ve XHB gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bakmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Nisan 2025 verisinin ard\u0131ndan, konut in\u015faat\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc yaz ve sonbahar boyunca %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Bu erken talep g\u00f6stergelerini izleyerek y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon alanlar, trend belirginle\u015fmeden \u00f6nce yakalad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na damga vuran \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d (soft landing: ekonominin sert daralma olmadan yava\u015flamas\u0131) anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n erken par\u00e7alar\u0131ndan biriydi.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi Nisan 2026\u2019da, Case-Shiller Konut Fiyat Endeksi (Home Price Index: konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,5 artm\u0131\u015fken, ilk ba\u015fvuru verilerinin g\u00fcvenilir bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge (forward indicator: gelece\u011fi i\u015faret eden veri) oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fed s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (restrictive stance: faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlama politikas\u0131) korurken, yava\u015flama sinyali olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu haftal\u0131k veriyi izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Konut piyasas\u0131nda kritik k\u0131p\u0131rdanma: MBA verisine g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de ipotek ba\u015fvurular\u0131 10 Nisan haftas\u0131nda %1,8 artt\u0131. Faiz patikas\u0131, tahvil pozisyonlar\u0131 ve konut in\u015faat\u0131 hisseleri i\u00e7in erken sinyal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44675\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}