S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019u gelecek haftan\u0131n sonuna kadar finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Piyasa beklentisi, k\u00e2rlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) yakla\u015f\u0131k %14 artmas\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7ift haneli b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde k\u00e2rlar\u0131n %40\u2019tan fazla artmas\u0131 beklenirken, sa\u011fl\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo ve Citigroup dahil b\u00fcy\u00fck ABD bankalar\u0131; kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 (bankalar\u0131n kredi verme i\u015ftah\u0131 ve tahsilat performans\u0131) ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncellemeler nedeniyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u0130ki \u00e7ip (yar\u0131 iletken) \u015firketi olan ASML ve TSMC de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ASML 15\/03\/2026\u2019da bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r (EPS: \u015firket k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n hisse ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen k\u0131sm\u0131) i\u00e7in beklenti 7,79 dolar, gelir (revenue: sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n toplam\u0131) i\u00e7in 10,15 milyar dolar. Hisse 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %38 y\u00fckseldi. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte sipari\u015fler (bookings: al\u0131nan yeni sipari\u015flerin parasal tutar\u0131) 13,2 milyar avroya ula\u015ft\u0131; gelir 9,7 milyar avro, net k\u00e2r 2,84 milyar avro oldu.<\/p>\n
Takip edilen ba\u015fl\u0131klar: br\u00fct k\u00e2r marj\u0131 (gross margin: sat\u0131\u015ftan maliyet \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca kalan k\u00e2r\u0131n sat\u0131\u015fa oran\u0131) e\u011filimi, ihracat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 nedeniyle \u00c7in\u2019e maruz kalma ve \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki sipari\u015f s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan sonra yeni sipari\u015f ak\u0131\u015f\u0131. Sipari\u015flerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 (hangi \u00fcr\u00fcn ve m\u00fc\u015fteri grubundan geldi\u011fi) da izleniyor.<\/p>\n
TSMC 16\/03\/2026\u2019da (PST: Pasifik Saati) sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. EPS beklentisi 3,34 dolar, gelir beklentisi 35,33 milyar dolar. Hisse 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %22 art\u0131da. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte net k\u00e2r y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %35 y\u00fckseldi ve \u00e7eyreklik gelir 1 trilyon Tayvan dolar\u0131 (NT$) e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131; bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste sekizinci \u00e7eyrekte k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n
Odak noktalar\u0131: Arizona, Japonya ve Almanya\u2019daki yeni \u00fcretim tesislerinin (fab: \u00e7ip fabrikas\u0131) marjlara etkisi, yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) kaynakl\u0131 talebin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek ile y\u0131l geneline ili\u015fkin \u015firket \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri (guidance: y\u00f6netimin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklenti aral\u0131\u011f\u0131).<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 boyunca bilan\u00e7o sezonu h\u0131zlan\u0131rken, beklenen k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da netle\u015fiyor. \u015eu ana kadar S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte biri bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u015firketlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %78\u2019i EPS tahminlerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oran, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma daha belirgin. Teknoloji, 2025 boyunca h\u0131zlanan yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmeye devam ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011fl\u0131k ve baz\u0131 t\u00fcketim alanlar\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha zor kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, opsiyonlarla (options: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) risk s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak teknoloji liderlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131p zay\u0131f hisselerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon alma gibi stratejilere alan a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Mart ortas\u0131nda ASML\u2019nin bilan\u00e7osu, man\u015fette g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rakamlara ra\u011fmen daha temkinli bir hava yaratt\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki rekor sipari\u015fler tekrarlanmad\u0131; y\u00f6netim br\u00fct marj konusunda net mesaj vermedi. Hisse o tarihten beri yatay seyretti. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da bir sonraki \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme \u00f6ncesi al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call options: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) daha uygun maliyetle de\u011ferlendirmeye imk\u00e2n verebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019e ihracat kurallar\u0131 ve gelecekteki sipari\u015fler konusundaki belirsizlik nedeniyle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olas\u0131 harekete kat\u0131l\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ASML\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread: ayn\u0131 vade i\u00e7inde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, k\u00e2r\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru toparlanma beklentisine, tek ba\u015f\u0131na al\u0131m opsiyonu almadan daha kontroll\u00fc maliyetle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
TSMC\u2019nin ge\u00e7en ayki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yapay zek\u00e2 talebi ile k\u00fcresel geni\u015flemenin maliyetleri aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi g\u00f6sterdi. Gelir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, Arizona ve Japonya\u2019daki yeni fabrikalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa etkisi fiyatland\u0131 ve hisse s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekildi. Nisan ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla hisse s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir bantta hareket ediyor; piyasa yeni bilgi bekliyor.<\/p>\n
TSMC hissesi ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in, son zirvelerin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan teminatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (covered call: eldeki hisseye kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim geliri elde etme) hisse bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece gelir sa\u011flayabilir. Di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (long-dated put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) jeopolitik risk art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma olabilir. Bu koruman\u0131n maliyeti g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; Cboe Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX: piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 16 civar\u0131nda ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zirvenin alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rallinin ard\u0131ndan de\u011ferlemeler (valuations: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u00e2r ve sat\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re pahal\u0131\/ucuz seviyesi) y\u00fckseldi; piyasa b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama sinyallerine daha hassas. Ge\u00e7en ayki bilan\u00e7olar, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentiler yeterince g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011filse iyi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n bile hisseleri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu ortamda opsiyonlarla riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamak daha kritik hale geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bilan\u00e7o f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 kap\u0131da: S&P 500\u2019de \u015firketlerin %10\u2019u sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. K\u00e2rlar\u0131n %14 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknoloji +%40, sa\u011fl\u0131k -%10. Bankalar, ASML-TSMC bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve opsiyon stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44670\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}