AUD\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 113,40\u2013113,50 band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ihtimalinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) art\u0131rmas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi\u011fini ve buna gerek g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini belirtirken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirme program\u0131n\u0131n 20 y\u0131l ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Andrew Hauser, Ortado\u011fu gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji krizi ve s\u00fcren enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar\u0131n Avustralya i\u00e7in zor ge\u00e7ece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n (mal ve enerji tedarikinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131) \u201cstagflasyon benzeri\u201d (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birlikte zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) bir sonucun riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u00c7apraz kur (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) ayr\u0131ca Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan destek buldu; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan petrol ithalat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. ABD ordusunun uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyatlara ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 (piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kan petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131) ve yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere dair soru i\u015faretlerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesine (yetkililerin piyasaya girip kuru etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) y\u00f6nelik beklentilerle destek bulabilir. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n Ortado\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkisini izlemek zorunda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne zarar verebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine dair k\u0131r\u0131lgan umutlar\u0131n etkisiyle AUD\/JPY\u2019nin 113,50\u2019ye do\u011fru itildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu iyimser hava ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7, ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aksamas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zla da\u011f\u0131labilir. Buradaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin sa\u011flam temelden \u00e7ok beklentiye dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya ekonomisindeki temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k da hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131; RBA stagflasyon riskine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Son veriler Avustralya T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da ekonominin yeni bir enerji fiyat \u015fokunu kald\u0131ramayabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeyi a\u015fan uzun AUD pozisyonlar\u0131 daha riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kritik de\u011fi\u015fken petrol. WTI tipi ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerginlik nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. 2025\u2019teki enerji fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131n, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japon ekonomisini s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p yeni zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu etki \u015fu anda AUD\/JPY\u2019yi destekliyor; ancak k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de zedeleyebildi\u011fi i\u00e7in iki ucu keskin bir durum.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan 115 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japon yetkililerden olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor. Yetkililerin 2025 sonlar\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n bozuldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yen\u2019de olas\u0131 ani g\u00fc\u00e7lenme bu paritede sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik bir at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa inananlar i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (opsiyonun alma\/satma hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) 114 civar\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketi yakalayabilir. Bu strateji, olumlu havan\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve paritenin yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. Bu, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesine (de-escalation, tansiyonun azalmas\u0131) do\u011frudan bir bahis anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 113,50\u2019ye dayand\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken Yen, petrol ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fiyle zay\u0131f. RBA stagflasyon uyar\u0131yor; 115\u2019te m\u00fcdahale riski, petrol kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44669\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}