ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 98,00 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu seviye, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131ktan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. ABD dolar\u0131 bu hafta G8 (d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomileri) para birimleri aras\u0131nda en zay\u0131f performans\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
DXY bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 geriledi ve ge\u00e7en hafta ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri %2\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yak\u0131nda yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi ihtimaline odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, New York Post\u2019a verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerin yak\u0131nda yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019dan a\u00e7\u0131klama gelmedi. BM Genel Sekreteri Ant\u00f3nio Guterres ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi, \u00fcretici taraf\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun \u015eubat\u2019taki %3,4\u2019ten %4,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasa beklentisi olan %4,6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 tutulan, daha \u201ctemel\u201d fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019de kald\u0131 ve \u015eubat\u2019a g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu da beklenen %4,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde, Nisan 2025\u2019te DXY\u2019nin 98,00\u2019e ini\u015fi mevcut piyasa i\u00e7in yol g\u00f6sterici. O d\u00f6nemde bar\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle risk alma iste\u011fi artm\u0131\u015f (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ve zay\u0131f enflasyon verileri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bug\u00fcn de benzer bir tablo var. Ge\u00e7en hafta G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki deniz geriliminin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar endeksi 101,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda gezinirken, benzer bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te beklenenden zay\u0131f gelen \u00dcFE, Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mart 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon verisi) %2,9 geldi; %3,0 beklentisinin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve enflasyonda \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Bunun sonucunda Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, dolar\u0131n daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na oynama f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. DXY veya ilgili ETF\u2019lerde (Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu: endeksi izleyen, borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) al\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 100,00 psikolojik destek seviyesine do\u011fru hareket hedeflenebilir. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken emtia para birimlerinden (emtia fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u00fclkelerin paralar\u0131; \u00f6r. CAD, AUD, NZD) olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) da cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi s\u00fcrecinden \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6nemli ders, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f hareket etme derecesi) sert d\u00fc\u015fmesiydi. CME\u2019nin CVOL dolar volatilite endeksi (dolar\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 2025\u2019te bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonraki hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 gerilemi\u015fti. \u015eimdi de benzer bir oynakl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle uygulamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar endeksi 98\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f ihtimali ve beklentiyi a\u015fmayan \u00dcFE\/T\u00dcFE verileri dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Risk-on artarken DXY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, k\u0131sa dolar ve ucuzlayan put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44667\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}