USD\/JPY 158,59\u2019a geriledi ve 158,77\u2019den kapanarak %0,42 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kur 158,70\u2019in biraz alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki beklenti 159,00\u2013159,70 band\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir hareketti. Ancak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket bu beklentinin de alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde parite 158,50\u2019ye do\u011fru zay\u0131flay\u0131p ard\u0131ndan dengelenebilir. 158,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkma ihtimali var; 158,00 seviyesi ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00f6nemli seviye) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 haftada, parite 159,50 direncinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece 158,00 test edilebilir. Fiyat y\u00fckselip 159,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa (159,00\u2019da ara diren\u00e7 var), bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften \u00e7ok yatay bant hareketine (belirli aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme art\u0131yor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 158,00 seviyesinin test edilmesi i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131 dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde i\u015flem yapanlar) 158,50 veya 158,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyonlar beklenen geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalan\u0131r; vade olarak Nisan sonu veya May\u0131s 2026, bu k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131maya uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 son ABD enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor. Mart man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,1 ile piyasa beklentisinin az alt\u0131nda geldi. Bu, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yaz sonuna do\u011fru faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar art\u0131rd\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bu temel (makro) de\u011fi\u015fim, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki dolar zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca piyasalar\u0131n m\u00fcdahaleye (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. 2025 boyunca kur \u00f6nceki zirveleri a\u015farken Japon yetkililerden gelen s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar bunu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Mevcut y\u00fcksek seviyeler, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor; bu da USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan\u0131 do\u011fal olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine pozisyon almay\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek kritik seviye 159,50\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket (g\u00fcnlerce\/haftalarca \u00fczerinde tutunma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar riski bu seviyeye g\u00f6re kurgulayabilir: sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) pozisyonlar\u0131nda zarar-kes (stop-loss; zarar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden pozisyonu kapatma seviyesi) belirlemek veya 159,50 ve \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa bacakl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (call spread; ayn\u0131 vadede iki al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) satmak. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, sert hareketlerin g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fi bir piyasada riski daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor: 158,59\u2019a gerileyen parite 158,00 deste\u011fini hedefleyebilir. 159,50 alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif; 158,50\/158,00 put\u2019lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD T\u00dcFE ve m\u00fcdahale riski yen\u2019i destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44666\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}